This is a paper examining fiscal multipliers. The abstract, below, makes an interesting observation. *It suggests that the multipliers are deflated at the effect goes into increasing demand for imports. *The *history of employment and imports, in the US, show a connection between employment ratio and imports. This is an interesting issue that dampens the effectiveness of fiscal policy. Globalization, without international coordination, can make national attempts at managing economies mute.
"The multipliers of taxes, and government consumption and investment expenditure for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) are estimated using vector autoregression models with panel data. The impact and long-run multipliers are below unity,
suggesting that a great extent of the intended impulse ends up expanding imported demand. The long-run multipliers of taxes and consumption expenditure are non-different from zero statistically, while public investment has a long-run multiplier of 0.6. The results suggest that countercyclical policies to stimulate growth should focus on public investment."
Fiscal Multipliers in the ECCU
I see that the author uses the term "impulse", rather matter-of-factly. This suggests, to me, that my intuition of fiscal changes as being transitory is taken as established, without question, in macro. *What I have yet to findnis anything that defines the level at steady state after the impulse has died out.
Yup. * The issue today is much different than it was 50 years ago. *The changes in corporate structure and marketing targeting is quite different today, after decades of rampant mergers and acquisitions and the globalization of corporations. *Adam Smith had no reason to predict the changes in corporate monopoly power as a result of mergers, nor the impact of global corporations on the market system. *Which is why, to many economists (perhaps most) the concept that we have a market system is quaint. *And it is why, from an employment and labor situation, *the labor component of our economy is short changed.
It is also interesting that we are not able to look at other countries economic policies, and continue to want to believe that only US policies make sense. *Germany, and most other countries, do not believe that unfettered imports are a good plan. *And why, in fact, most all place duties on imports to protect their markets and their workers. *Consider that concept with us monopolistic corporations like, say, Exxon Mobile.
"Which is why, to many economists (perhaps most) the concept that we have a market system is quaint."
So did Smith. *It's an idealized model. *Smith knew it (that or we are claiming him to be an idiot), every econ prof knows it, every student knows it.*
Every intro econ prof I've watched, rolled his eyes repeatedly, while the class murmered... "Yeah, sure... 'perfectly competative'..."
It is exactly like thermo class when some student would say, "Yeah, I'll take two of those ideal piston and cylinders you've got there."
Did you know that, if you have a perfectly reflective glass, you can capture light in a Thermous bottle and open it up in a dark room for a flash of illumination."
The trick to science was summed up by two statements that Einstien made. *
a)*The key is to make it as simple as possible, without making it too simple.
b)*When solving a problem, it helps to know the answer ahead of time.
That's how Newton did it, that's how Smith did it, that's how Einstien did it.*
The rest is just friction. ("just friction"...yeah, right...)