There is a statistical fallacy there somewhere, but my math skills are not l337 enough to know the name of it. All it takes is one to ruin your weekend. Unlike Roulette and Dice, the probabilities of a bad result keep getting bigger as time moves forward.
You are correct if the fault is one that moves at regular intervals. However, if it is like our own subduction zone, with intervals ranging between 100 and 900 years, no real way to tell.
Here in the Pacific NorthWet, earthquakes are pretty rare. But when we get one, they are huge. Records indicate we had something on the magnitude of 9.5 plus back in August of 1700.
Anyway, have a good time in Jamaica. May all the shaking you experience be on the dance floor