Again, you make my point. Investors/speculators believed that notwithstanding the higher yields, the risk was negligible for their particular bond. As recently as April 2014 this is what the pundits were saying (see below). My point is, tough luck for the speculators if it all goes bottoms up. But, I am not yet convinced that the powers that be will allow the wealthy speculators will be left out to dry. Although I hope they are.
"2. The yield is reasonably juicy.
4.95% might not seem like a lot on its face, but Greece has been suffering from deflation for the past year. Right now the inflation rate in Greece is about -1.5%, which means the real yield on this bond, for a Greek investor, is actually closer to 6.5%. Given that Europe is going to have a zero interest rate environment for the foreseeable future, that kind of real yield is undeniably attractive.
3. There’s potential for significant price appreciation.
With a coupon of 4.75% and a yield of 4.95%, you can buy €1,000 face value of bonds today for €991. Let’s assume that you hold this bond for 18 months, and that at the end of that period the yield has dropped to Portugal’s 2.6%. In that case, you would get three coupons along the way, totaling €71.25, even as the value of the bond itself would have risen to $1,071. If you sell the bond at that point, you’re not just getting your €71.25 in coupon payments, and you’re also getting €80 in capital gains — for a total profit of €151.25. Which is a 15.3% return in 18 months. Not too shabby, in a world of zero interest rates.
4. The chance of default is slim.
Greece has an unsustainable debt load, and will certainly default again in the future. But the key question for anybody buying this bond isn’t
whether Greece will default. Rather it’s
whenGreece will default, and
what instruments Greece will choose to default on. So long as Greece continues to pay the modest coupons on this modestly-sized bond for the next five years, it can prove to be a perfectly good investment even if the country is defaulting elsewhere. Similarly, if Greece defaults on its public bonded debt but does so after April 2019, again this bond will be unscathed.
The degree of pain inflicted on Greece’s private-sector bondholders in 2012 was so enormous, and the amount of privately-held debt which is still outstanding is so small, that it’s going to be the official sector’s turn to take a big haircut next time round. In other words, buying this bond does not constitute a bet that Greece, as a sovereign, will not default. It’s just a bet that
this particular bond will not default.
And that’s actually a bet I’d be willing to take."
Five explanations for Greece s bond yield