Ian, I admit that I don't know everything about climategate, and you're obviously an intelligent person who can discuss the topic rationally, which is good and healthy.
This is my question:
Right now I hear your defense - you claim that the IPCC's credibility is poor, that there are scientists like Mann who are not credible either, and that a few reputable scientists who have started to question the credibility of the mainstream consensus (like Judith Curry). Great, I don't doubt that you think that for a good reason, but now you need to provide some evidence supporting your claim. Not evidence supporting that IPCC is not credible, but evidence supporting the claim that the science consensus is actually starting to turn in large numbers and that the majority of credible research really does not support man-made global warming anymore in such strong numbers (ie an equal work contrasting the 97/100 claim of IPCC).
I think you would need to start by citing the work of an alternate major credible science body/institution - perhaps something along the lines of an alternate intergovernmental panel (or something like that, something that's not organized by a specific or right/left leaning think tank) - who has come together, reviewed without bias the bulk of credible climate research, and concluded that the consensus is not quite as strong as what IPCC said, you know what I mean?
Where is that equivalent, Ian?
I listed some other institutions like NASA, The American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science that side with me, again, where are yours?
The difference here so far is that my argument cites the conclusions of a number of major scientific institutions, your argument simply questions the credibility of those institutions. Which argument do you think is stronger (do you see where I'm getting at)?
Now you can say that you don't believe that the science consensus is correct, and that's fine, and just to clarify - is that what your stance is?
I dont believe the emphysis of
climate science consensus is correct. there is a vast gulf between what you accuse me of and what I actually say.
the information available during the 90's was considerably different than today. the possibility of climate disaster was coincidentally much stronger then than now. decisions were made to fasttrack climate research to explore the possibilities and strong statements were made that were weak on actual science. many science societies came down strong on the one side because it was prudent. and easy. since then the data supports a much softer stance but it is much harder to back away from previous statements once they are made. some societies have rachetted down their statements, leaving lawyeresque opinions that could be taken to mean many things with pausible deniability available in the future if needed.
you demand me to produce my army of scientists and their armoury of scientific papers so that we can meet on some imaginary field of war where the size of the opposing forces will determine the outcome. but its not that kind of war, it is ongoing guerilla skermishes where we use your own papers and data against you! our side has basically no funding. for instance Heartland has a few tens of millions in its operating budget and less than five million was spent on climate change information. 5 million is chump change so why is it considered an evil puppetmaster controlling things in the background? I think your side's conspiracy theories are more farfetched than ours. and our side has direct quotes from your superstar climate scientists whereas you guys have resorted to fraud to smear our side. what is your opinion on Gleick? is it OK to be dishonest in the name of the 'Noble Cause'?
does it ever make you wonder why there are so few public debates on CAGW/CC? and why the warmers seem to lose them all? it is because the global warming hypothesis just doesnt seem to be as certain or as important when the framing of the questions is not strickly controlled. and the thinking public is catching on to that.
oh, and by the way, do you know the backstory about the 97% consensus? it is typical of the CAGW distortion of data collection.
Interesting things, @Ian/@Wall, and I will look into them (frankly a bit burnt out on the subject currently) but will look into them. Thanks for the back and forth.
Ian, I understand that the "97%" consensus is not the end all, say all, but as I mentioned before, the consensus on the subject I believe at least falls in the heavy favor of the GACW camp vs that of the denier group.
But like you said, this could possibly be for reasons such as:
1.) Science pointed more heavily to support CAGW in the 1990's, so all of science went in that direction, supporting it, now it's hard to retract. So institutions just sort of say relatively the same thing, despite new data.
2.) The science on the side of CAGW is much more heavily funded, therefore remains the "consensus view" (ie 20 guys get funding who believe in CAGW, 1 guy gets funding who doesn't believe).
So this would mean that a large number of top level research institutes - like the United States
National Academy of Sciences - is pushing along this overly extreme CAGW idea, even when their is new and strong evidence stating otherwise, just to save face? To keep their funding?
And from what I can dig up, most of the major national academies of the developed/semi-developed (I suppose for some of these) support the data of the "alarmists" vs the "deniers", including the
French Academy of Science, Australian Academy of Sciences, Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts, Brazilian Academy of Sciences, Royal Society of Canada, Caribbean Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina, Indian National Science Academy, Indonesian Academy of Sciences, Royal Irish Academy, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy), Academy of Sciences Malaysia, Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and Royal Society (UK).
I'm not a climate expert by any means and never will claim to be. I'm not a scientist either. I'm actually a Supply Chain Analyst and a Stratocaster Enthusiast.
But, I just find it difficult to form an opinion on a subject that I do not study myself that would be in direct contrast with the view of those Academies I list above.
Or maybe I'm wrong, perhaps those Academies are changing their tunes, or perhaps I'm mistaken on their viewpoint to begin with.
But can you at least understand where I'm coming from, and why it's so difficult for me to not believe what all of those major science institutions have stated?