GDP Decline Caused by Tariffs?

[jwoodie]

The reported decline of 0.3% in the GDP for the 1st Quarter of 2025 may not be what it seems. The calculation of the GDP includes a measure of Consumption, which is defined as domestic production minus imports. This means that an increase in imports results in a decrease in this calculation.

The 1st Quarter of 2025 saw a huge increase of imports ahead of the announced tariffs for April. This resulted in an almost 5% decrease in the GDP calculation. Without these imports, the GDP would have been over 4% growth rather than a 0.3% decline. Because of the further delay in many tariff implementation dates, this calculation anomaly may continue into the 2nd Quarter of 2025.

If so, we might have a "technical recession" of two declining quarters in a row, But if the new tariffs and/or trade deals actually reduce imports, the 3rd and 4th Quarter GDP calculations should be very positive.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

The reported decline of 0.3% in the GDP for the 1st Quarter of 2025 may not be what it seems. The calculation of the GDP includes a measure of Consumption, which is defined as domestic production minus imports. This means that an increase in imports results in a decrease in this calculation.

The 1st Quarter of 2025 saw a huge increase of imports ahead of the announced tariffs for April. This resulted in an almost 5% decrease in the GDP. Without these imports, the GDP calculation would have been over 4% growth rather than a 0.3% decline. Because of the further delay in many tariff implementation dates, this calculation anomaly may continue into the 2nd Quarter of 2025.

If so, we might have a "technical recession" of two declining quarters in a row, But if the new tariffs and/or trade deals actually reduce imports, the 3rd and 4th Quarter GDP calculations should be very positive.

I heard there was a decrease in federal spending.
That would cause a drop in GDP.
If you took a poll, I'll bet the vast majority would be willing to accept a GDP drop caused by lower spending.

 

[sealybobo]

The reported decline of 0.3% in the GDP for the 1st Quarter of 2025 may not be what it seems. The calculation of the GDP includes a measure of Consumption, which is defined as domestic production minus imports. This means that an increase in imports results in a decrease in this calculation.

The 1st Quarter of 2025 saw a huge increase of imports ahead of the announced tariffs for April. This resulted in an almost 5% decrease in the GDP calculation. Without these imports, the GDP would have been over 4% growth rather than a 0.3% decline. Because of the further delay in many tariff implementation dates, this calculation anomaly may continue into the 2nd Quarter of 2025.

If so, we might have a "technical recession" of two declining quarters in a row, But if the new tariffs and/or trade deals actually reduce imports, the 3rd and 4th Quarter GDP calculations should be very positive.

Trump was supposed to have 4, 5 maybe even 6% GDP in 2017 after his historic tax breaks to everyone. He put more money in everyones pockets. Course that causes inflation but the point is, 2016-2020 were supposed to be booming years of record growth.

Obama had 2.2% gdp his last year. Trump in 2017 had 2.3. Not even close to 6% GDP.

 

[jwoodie]

Trump was supposed to have 4, 5 maybe even 6% GDP in 2017 after his historic tax breaks to everyone. He put more money in everyones pockets. Course that causes inflation but the point is, 2016-2020 were supposed to be booming years of record growth.

Obama had 2.2% gdp his last year. Trump in 2017 had 2.3. Not even close to 6% GDP.

So what is your point? That you expected Trump to have a higher GDP in 2017? Wake up, Rip Van Winkle. It's 2025.

 

[sealybobo]

The reported decline of 0.3% in the GDP for the 1st Quarter of 2025 may not be what it seems. The calculation of the GDP includes a measure of Consumption, which is defined as domestic production minus imports. This means that an increase in imports results in a decrease in this calculation.

The 1st Quarter of 2025 saw a huge increase of imports ahead of the announced tariffs for April. This resulted in an almost 5% decrease in the GDP calculation. Without these imports, the GDP would have been over 4% growth rather than a 0.3% decline. Because of the further delay in many tariff implementation dates, this calculation anomaly may continue into the 2nd Quarter of 2025.

If so, we might have a "technical recession" of two declining quarters in a row, But if the new tariffs and/or trade deals actually reduce imports, the 3rd and 4th Quarter GDP calculations should be very positive.

Last year Suzie got 30 Asian dolls for $200. This year she's getting 2 American dolls for $200.
America wins. The American corporation wins. But Suzie most certainly loses.

 

[Zincwarrior]

Last year Suzie got 30 Asian dolls for $200. This year she's getting 2 American dolls for $200.
America wins. The American corporation wins. But Suzie most certainly loses.

Suzie needs to put down the dolls and get a job!

 

[leftwinger]

Everyday the media is stoking fears of "recession". I quit Yahoo finance months back as it was almost edited by XIs' people.

Tried CNBC.....but everyday is says "DOW drops on Trumps' tariff fears" in big bold letters. Even if the market is going up they come up with something like ...."but Trump makes it impossible for FED to drop rates". Beyond hopeless this dirty Deep State paid media.

 

[jwoodie]

Last year Suzie got 30 Asian dolls for $200. This year she's getting 2 American dolls for $200.
America wins. The American corporation wins. But Suzie most certainly loses.

The moral of Trump's story is that Americans need to stop buying excessive amounts of Chinese fru-fru.

 

[sealybobo]

Suzie needs to put down the dolls and get a job!

Well maybe instead of a 5th of tequilla you will only be able to afford a half pint.

The funny thing is Trump is basically telling you that you are just a greedy fat fuck and so is Suzie. It's a much different message from last year. Last year you were telling voters that Democrats were going to FORCE you to buy EV's and they were going to OUTLAW gas cars. You wanted FREEDOM and you didn't want the government forcing you to buy a product you didn't want to buy. Especially one that's not cheaper. You claim gas is cheaper than EV's right?

You didn't care that EV's were cleaner energy. But now you don't mind Republicans telling you what you can and can't buy.

Remember we tried to ban 2 liter pops in NY? You guys were so angry. Biden should have told you that your fat ass shouldn't be drinking 2 liters. No good for you. Just like you're telling Suzie she doens't need 30 dolls.

It's like you and Trump are missing the point here.

 

[Zincwarrior]

Well maybe instead of a 5th of tequilla you will only be able to afford a half pint.

Oh know I will get that fifth. Thats why Suzie only has two dolls now.

The funny thing is Trump is basically telling you that you are just a greedy fat fuck and so is Suzie. It's a much different message from last year. Last year you were telling voters that Democrats were going to FORCE you to buy EV's and they were going to OUTLAW gas cars. You wanted FREEDOM and you didn't want the government forcing you to buy a product you didn't want to buy. Especially one that's not cheaper. You claim gas is cheaper than EV's right?

You didn't care that EV's were cleaner energy. But now you don't mind Republicans telling you what you can and can't buy.

Remember we tried to ban 2 liter pops in NY? You guys were so angry. Biden should have told you that your fat ass shouldn't be drinking 2 liters. No good for you. Just like you're telling Suzie she doens't need 30 dolls.

It's like you and Trump are missing the point here.

Who's "you" kemosabe?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Trump was supposed to have 4, 5 maybe even 6% GDP in 2017 after his historic tax breaks to everyone. He put more money in everyones pockets. Course that causes inflation but the point is, 2016-2020 were supposed to be booming years of record growth.

Obama had 2.2% gdp his last year. Trump in 2017 had 2.3. Not even close to 6% GDP.

Tax cuts cause inflation?

Tell me more!!!

 

[sealybobo]

Tax cuts cause inflation?

Tell me more!!!

If you give everyone more money what do you think happens? Do you think prices would go up or down?

Yes, if Elon suddenly has $50 million more dollars. My brother suddenly has $50,000 more dollars and I suddenly have $5000 it's going to cause prices to go up. Isn't that what happened when Biden gave everyone stimulus money? Suddenly everyone had $1500 burning a hole in their pockets and prices went up.

It weakens the value of the dollar too right?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

If you give everyone more money what do you think happens? Do you think prices would go up or down?

Yes, if Elon suddenly has $50 million more dollars. My brother suddenly has $50,000 more dollars and I suddenly have $5000 it's going to cause prices to go up. Isn't that what happened when Biden gave everyone stimulus money? Suddenly everyone had $1500 burning a hole in their pockets and prices went up.

It weakens the value of the dollar too right?

If you give everyone more money what do you think happens?

Give? You mean like take it from a tax payer and give it to an illegal alien?
That causes inflation?

It weakens the value of the dollar too right?

Really? Previous tax cuts weakened the value of the dollar?