Gallup: Romney Leading Among Early Voters

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Different narrative than what we've been hearing.

Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead

Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

In U.S., 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots

 

[blackhawk]

Gallup is no longer a acceptable poll to the left come on you know that.

 

[Oddball]

That's not what Silver and 528 sez!

 

[Sherry]

Oh noes, they caught the racist.

 

[courseofhistory]

There are many other polls and information that says just the opposite of Gallup. Obama is ahead in most early voting and has erased the absentee ballot "lead" Romney had in 48 hrs. of early voting. In 2008, it took a week of early voting for Obama to accomplish the same thing.

 

[Listening]

RCP has Romney over Obama by almost 3 points in favorability.

Obama is toast !!!

 

[blackhawk]

There are many other polls and information that says just the opposite of Gallup. Obama is ahead in most early voting and has erased the absentee ballot "lead" Romney had in 48 hrs. of early voting. In 2008, it took a week of early voting for Obama to accomplish the same thing.

Care to provide one other than Nate Sliver.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

And the rout is on?

**GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters

 

[toomuchtime_]

And the rout is on?

**GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters

After all the chest thumping about Obama's ground game, that is surprising.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

And the rout is on?

**GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters

After all the chest thumping about Obama's ground game, that is surprising.

I'm not a fan of Obama and his weasel followers. But I'll say that at least some of it is justified. Rasmussen reported that Obama is ahead 62-35 in Ohio in early voting.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

There are many other polls and information that says just the opposite of Gallup. Obama is ahead in most early voting and has erased the absentee ballot "lead" Romney had in 48 hrs. of early voting. In 2008, it took a week of early voting for Obama to accomplish the same thing.

Care to provide one other than Nate Sliver.

How about an analysis of polls? Wouldn't that better?

Cassidy's Count: More Alarm Bells for Obama : The New Yorker

Cassidy’s Count: More Alarm Bells for Obama
Posted by John Cassidy

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

And the rout is on?

**GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters

Democrats Hold Early-Voting Advantage Over Republicans

In two of the most competitive states in the U.S. presidential race -- Iowa and Nevada -- Democrats are building a significant advantage in early voting.

Who has the edge is more muddled in the bigger swing states of Ohio and Florida, while Republicans have a narrow lead in Colorado. Early, in-person voting started in Florida over the weekend, and dozens of Democrats in Tallahassee marched five blocks from a church to an early-voting site yesterday, chanting “Vote early.”

Almost 15 million people have already cast ballots nationwide, according to the United States Elections Project at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. Both parties are spinning their versions of what the turnout means as they seek to project momentum in a contest where more than a third of the nation’s vote probably will be cast before Election Day, Nov. 6.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Democrats Hold Early-Voting Advantage Over Republicans

In Iowa, more than 470,000 people had cast ballots through Oct. 27, according to the Iowa secretary of state’s office. If as many people vote this year as did in 2008, that would represent 30 percent of the total vote. Registered Democrats have cast 44.6 percent of the ballots so far, compared with 32 percent by Republicans and 23.3 percent by independents.
Polls Versus Voting

“The main thing is not to look at the polling but to look at the voting,” David Axelrod, a senior campaign strategist for President Barack Obama, said yesterday on CNN’s “State of the Union” program. “We are mounting up a very, very large lead in Iowa based on where those early votes are coming from.”

Democrats Hold Early-Voting Advantage Over Republicans - Businessweek

 

[auditor0007]

Different narrative than what we've been hearing.

Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead

Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

In U.S., 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots

There are a number of explanations as to what Gallup is reporting. The first is that they are spot on and everyone else is wrong. The second is that they are way off and everyone else is right. It will be very interesting to see what they are reporting a couple days before the election.

One interesting thing I see from their polling on early voters is that in the West 55% of voters plan to vote before election day, while in the Midwest only 23% plan on voting before election day. In the South, 40% say they plan to vote before election day. In the East only 9% are planning on voting early, but not many states in the East offer easy early voting. Most of those states require an excuse and then you must vote absentee. The difference though, between the West and South versus the Midwest doesn't make sense.

 

[auditor0007]

And the rout is on?

**GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters

The real shock is that most of those early voters are in the Western and Southern states, the majority of which are Republican strongholds.

 

[NYcarbineer]

This is directly from the Gallup article:

2012 Early Voters Are Older, Concentrated in the West

Early voting this election year is most prevalent in the West, followed by the South and the Midwest, but is relatively light in the East.

So...

...early voting occurs disproportionately in areas where Romney is stronger, less so in areas where Obama will dominate,

and OMG Romney has a lead among those voters!!!!!!!!

 

[Nova78]

Hell yea !

 

[George Costanza]

DVPC has Obama ahead of Romney 51-49.

 

[Sallow]

Different narrative than what we've been hearing.

Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead

Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

In U.S., 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots

There are a number of explanations as to what Gallup is reporting. The first is that they are spot on and everyone else is wrong. The second is that they are way off and everyone else is right. It will be very interesting to see what they are reporting a couple days before the election.

One interesting thing I see from their polling on early voters is that in the West 55% of voters plan to vote before election day, while in the Midwest only 23% plan on voting before election day. In the South, 40% say they plan to vote before election day. In the East only 9% are planning on voting early, but not many states in the East offer easy early voting. Most of those states require an excuse and then you must vote absentee. The difference though, between the West and South versus the Midwest doesn't make sense.

It might be they are undersampling minorities..particularly hispanics.

Who, very well, might tip this election.

 

[Trajan]

Gallup is no longer a acceptable poll to the left come on you know that.

Yup, ras is 'right wing', Gallup doesn't appear to be towing the admin. line so, I wonder what excuse will be now?