That would guarantee an Obama re-election.
Obama's re-election hinges on two points.
1. How bad he ***** up the economy (or lets others do it on his watch)
2. How bad a choice the GOP leadership makes in their presidential candidate.
If the GOP picks a bad candidate, (Huckabee, Romney, McCain types) the Tea Party will abandon them in droves. This benefits Obama massively. That being said, if we are looking at the predicted 10 dollar loaf of bread and 8 dollar a gallon gas with retirement funds going up in flames and inflation surpassing that of the 1970's... The third party candidate could win in those circumstances, or the split will not happen because even a Huckabee, Romney or McCain... hell even TRUMP would be better and they'll hold their nose for this election and pull the lever.
On the other hand, you can guarantee this would be the end of the GOP as we know it as big money will start leaving the GOP and finding a 3rd party. People are too polarized right now to just casually forget so soon. That stuff pretty much ended in 2010.