More Than 4 in 10 Say Obama Deserves Re-Election
1. "Voters' views about President Obama's re-election fall in between their views of most members of Congress and of their local representative. Forty-three percent say Obama deserves to be re-elected,
while 55% say he does not. The "deserves" percentage is slightly lower than Gallup measured in August and May of this year, but above the low point of 37% measured in October 2010."
2. And this is testimony to
firm decisons by those who responded. Only 2% couldn't make a choice.
3. And Gallup's results are based on
'registered voters' not the more valid 'likely voters:'
"Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 28-Dec. 1, 2011, with a random sample of 1,012 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.
For results based on the total sample of 903 registered voters used in this analysis, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points."
Record High Anti-Incumbent Sentiment Toward Congress
4. Interesting that
Gallup hid the negative news way down in the poll, after questions and graphs about whether or not Obama deserves re-election. Wouldn't you think that the question about the President's chances would be prime news?
You think it's an accident, huh?
First, Obama-supporters...say bye-bye to the Pres.
Next, analyze why your choice was such a blunder....
...what does it say about your politics?
Then apologize.
This is a big reason why "President Gingrich" or "President Perry" or "President Huckabee" is / would have been a real possibility.
I think the Republicans are going to sweep next year, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Dems made gains in the House.
You are the first one I've seen to suggest that the House might be in play.
But I see a reason why, based on economics, you might wish for that....
1. The two periods of fiscal responsibility in six decades were the Eisenhower and the Clinton administrations, periods during which the presidency and Congress were controlled by different parties. William A. Niskanen, “A Case For Divided Government,”
A Case for Divided Government | William A. Niskanen | Cato Institute: Daily Commentary
2. The worst spending periods were those with one party in charge.
a. a. 1967 and 1968, LBJ and the Democrats, spending increased 11.6% a year.
Historical Tables | The White House (table 1.1)
3. The largest average decrease came in 1955 and 1956, with spending decreasing an average 4.2% a year. Eisenhower was President, with Democrats in charge in Congress. Ibid.
4. If you don’t want to see expansion of government, gridlock is good.
5. In 1997, the most promising
budget reform in American history died aborning! President Clinton and
House Speaker Newt Gingrich secretly created a abipartisan plan to permanently rin in Social Security and Medicare. It would provide Social Security personal accounts and convert Medicare into a market-based, premium support program. The idea was for Clinton to offer the plan during his Januar 1998 State of the Union address, and Gingrich to endorse it.
What happened? Six days before the Clinton speech the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke. Steve M. Gillon, “The Pact: Bill Clinton, Newt Gingrich, and the Rivalry that Defined a Generation.”
If Obama was less of an ideologue, an more like Clinton, he'd be a shoo-in.
That's the difference beteen what folks expected and what they got.