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Four Major Reasons to Doubt the U.S.–Iran Ceasefire
A ceasefire hailed as victory masks deep uncertainty—fragmented leadership, conflicting terms, and Iran’s track record
Four Major Reasons to Doubt the U.S.–Iran Ceasefire › American Greatness
On Tuesday evening, with less than two hours remaining before U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or be bombed “back to the Stone Ages…
amgreatness.com
On Tuesday evening, with less than two hours remaining before U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or be bombed “back to the Stone Ages,” he announced a mutual ceasefire.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt claimed “a victory for the United States that President Trump and our incredible military made happen.” Eli Lake of The Free Press claims that “America has won twice” by getting Iran’s commitment to reopen the Strait and by avoiding “an insane atrocity against the people he promised to liberate.”
However, I have four reasons for doubt.
First, Iran might not have the intent or capacity to implement the ceasefire.
Second, Iran might use the ceasefire to retrench and reorganize for war.
Third, even if the ceasefire holds, Iran and the U.S. have wildly different versions of their respective proposals.
Fourth, Iran has publicly ruled out most U.S. demands, partly to mobilize restive Iranians against foreigners supposedly intent on their destruction.
Trump’s post says the ceasefire is “subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” This is something the Iranian regime might not have the intent or capacity to achieve.
Iran’s regime is decimated and confused.
~Snip~
U.S. intelligence estimates that about a third of Iran’s missiles are destroyed, a third damaged or buried, and a third ready. Iran’s navy has suffered similar rates of loss. Iran’s launch sites and launch rate have decreased. But Iran retains the capability to attack neighboring countries and ships in the strait.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted a statement on behalf of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council that appears to agree to a ceasefire but adds caveats on the strait.
“If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations. For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible through coordination with Iran’s armed forces and with due consideration to technical limitations.”
~Snip~
Multiple times, Iran has ignored deadlines for an end to hostilities in this war alone.
And don’t forget that Iranian policy has included “death to America,” Israel, and Britain (usually in that order) since the Islamist revolution 47 years ago. It has demonstrated untrustworthiness more often than not. Why should we trust it in two weeks’ time?
Iran and the U.S. offer wildly different versions of their respective proposals, which hardly suggests optimism for an agreement within two weeks.
For a start, the ceasefire was initiated by Pakistan. Secondarily, China added some pressure on Iran. Trump made his announcement three hours after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had announced on X that diplomatic efforts toward a U.S.–Iran agreement were “progressing steadily, strongly, and powerfully.”
This final-hours diplomacy came four days after Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey sent a proposal to the U.S. and Iranian governments for Iran to cease attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in return for a ceasefire lasting 45 days (more than six weeks).
~Snip~
Whoever is in charge in Tehran, they might not be able to restrain the IRGC. Iranian missiles and drones continued to attack Israeli and Arab states after the deal was announced.
U.S. intelligence estimates that about a third of Iran’s missiles are destroyed, a third damaged or buried, and a third ready. Iran’s navy has suffered similar rates of loss. Iran’s launch sites and launch rate have decreased. But Iran retains the capability to attack neighboring countries and ships in the strait.
~Snip~
In other words, Iran’s foreign minister cannot guarantee safe passage through the strait.
Second, Iran might use the ceasefire to retrench and reorganize for war.
Foreign correspondent Amy Kellogg reports the real-time reaction of a friend in Iran, who said that regime loyalists “will spend the next two weeks making missiles. More to shoot at the Gulf and everywhere else . . . They are already out in the streets celebrating.”
Multiple times, Iran has ignored deadlines for an end to hostilities in this war alone.
And don’t forget that Iranian policy has included “Death to America,” Israel, and Britain (usually in that order) since the Islamist revolution 47 years ago. It has demonstrated untrustworthiness more often than not. Why should we trust it in two weeks’ time?
~Snip~
Meanwhile, Iran has not agreed to the most important parts of the earlier U.S. 15-point proposal. Iran has not agreed to give up its remaining weapons-grade nuclear material (440 kg of it, according to the IAEA), permit IAEA inspections, change its regime, or cut off its proxies.
Israel says its ceasefire “does not include Lebanon,” contradicting earlier claims from Pakistan.
~Snip~
Columnist Aaron MacLean, although sympathetic to Trump, notes that, “If the ceasefire doesn’t lead down the path toward diplomacy, or surrender, or Trump simply losing heart and moving on, we will be back in the standoff that gripped the world on Tuesday.”
Unfortunately, I would not bet on peace in two weeks’ time.
Commentary:
There's no doubt that Iran's leaders (those that remain) are attempting to run out the clock in hopes that Congress will not approve Epic Fury to be extended.
Obviously, Democrats mouths are watering with the thought of Trump's failure in Iran. and are trying hard to politically sabotage his efforts.
Personally, I believe that Trump will act before the two weeks is completely because of the diplomatic intransigence of the Iranians.
It’s high time we all realize the Iranian leader's past, present and future have but two objectives.....destroy Israel and destroy America or die trying.
I'm positive President Trump is absolutely aware of that.
I was disappointed we didn’t go ahead and begin to destroy the bridges and power plants for the simple reason we’re going to end up doing it eventually anyway.
The Iranian leadership is delusional and thinks they have enough military force to choke the Strait of Hormuz and will as they have for decades just play the US along. Their 10-point proposal is ridiculous especially when their military forces are essentially gone. They do not understand that Trump means business and will crush the regime. I could see a bombing campaign on the Iranian side of the Strait that leave a miles deep corridor of utter destruction preventing the Iranians from any offensive action against ships passing in the Strait.
