CrimsonWhite
*****istrator Emeritus
Good read for some perspective on McCain's lead.
Sen. John McCain has emerged from the convention with a slight lead - it works out to about 3 points, according to the Real Clear Politics average of major polls. But unless he starts reaching out more vigorously to independent voters, his convention bounce will likely fade.
In an election that is increasingly about who can win over moderates, Obama is still the candidate to beat. And as both candidates make their cases to voters in the coming weeks, Obama's strategy of targeting the middle is likely to prove more effective than the McCain camp's courtship of the conservative base.
These opposing strategies have become apparent recently. Witness the single biggest decision that Obama has made thus far: choosing Joe Biden as his running mate. The pick helped squelch concerns about Obama's perceived lack of experience and foreign policy savvy. More importantly, it signaled to moderates that when it matters, Obama makes sensible, pragmatic choices.
Obama's speech at the Democratic convention only fortified his centrist credentials. Refusing to shrink from even the most divisive social issues, he walked a fine yet commonsensical line down the center on topics like abortion, immigration and same-sex marriage, calling for us to "find the strength and grace to bridge divides and unite in common effort."
While this kind of post-partisan talk has defined the Obama campaign thus far, until now he had been unable to effectively balance his message of change with concrete policy proposals. This is no longer the case. Obama used his speech to "spell out exactly what that change would mean" in his administration.
For now, Barack Obama's the man in the middle, not John McCain