Florida delegates fully seated with one-half votes each

[ReillyT]

Whomever was the front runner at the time, they should have only taken away half the delegates. That was punishment enough. In fact, if what Care has posted is correct, that was what they were compelled to do under their own guidelines.

Care is wrong. There is an additional rule (6(c) or 5(c) I think) that clearly allows them to punish the states to a greater extent than 50%. One can quibble about whether the punishment was too hard, but I understand why they did what they did. Second-guessing at this point seems beyond useless.

 

[ReillyT]

If it wasn't for Texas's ridiculous two-tier primary plus caucus system that overrode the majority vote, Hillary would have won Texas. It is quite likely that she would have won Michigan even if Obama had been on th ballot.

If Obama is elected in November, he better be the best President this country has ever had, or he will be constantly plagued with if the shoulda, woulda, coulda syndrome of a tainted victory awarded by other than the people's choice.

Why all the whining about this state's rules for electing delegates? States have been doing things their way for years - Primaries, caucuses, mixed primaries, mail-in primaries. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

I think that due to the current administration's ultra-low bar, he may seem even better than he is.

 

[Ravi]

Second-guessing at this point seems beyond useless.

No it isn't. They need to get their acts together if they want to win elections for any other reason than Bush sucks.

 

[jillian]

See, ultimately, I think I wanted to see a slam dunk in this one. Some nebulous possilbity of idealistic young democratic voters isn't what concerned me. And, perhaps that's because of what my issues are right now. I want to see that there's no draft. My son, and only child, will be 18 at the end of the next two term presidency. I wanted to make sure that someone who promised the court to the religious right doesn't ever get to replace justices. For me, at least to a significant degree, Tip O'Neill was right when he said "all politics is local".

In my head, I just keep seeing an election map that looks like Nixon - McGovern (courtesy of the rules constructed by the guy who lost that one). Because I can tell you that my middle of the road friends who would have voted for Hillary are all voting for McCain. My more left-leaning friends would have voted for either one.

And that isn't because I'm racist or any of the other lovely things that Obama supporters like tossing at Hillary supporters. I always thought this one was Hillary's and that Obama should be her VP and go for it in 2016. And what really ticked me off? Listening to Mike Barnacle on Joe Scarborough's show this a.m. talk about how the press didn't really like Hillary b/c her people were arrogant to the press. Not exactly a good reason to start pushing an Obama candidacy, but I think it's a good chunk of what happened.

 

[ReillyT]

No it isn't. They need to get their acts together if they want to win elections for any other reason than Bush sucks.

I don't see how second-guessing a decision made in August 2007 has any bearing at this point. What is done is done, and I am sure that the situation will be looked at prior to the next presidential primary season.

 

[Ravi]

I don't see how second-guessing a decision made in August 2007 has any bearing at this point. What is done is done, and I am sure that the situation will be looked at prior to the next presidential primary season.

Um, your realize this is the DNC, right?

It will be interesting to see if Florida comes around.

 

[Steerpike]

See, ultimately, I think I wanted to see a slam dunk in this one. Some nebulous possilbity or idealistic young democratic voters isn't what concerned me. And, perhaps that's because of what my issues are right now. I want to see that there's no draft. My son, and only child, will be 18 at the end of the next two term presidency. I wanted to make sure that someone who promised the court to the religious right doesn't ever get to replace justices.

Aren't the democrats the only ones who've seriously proposed a draft since the war started. I know I saw Charles Rangel on TV about it. I doubt the GOP or the Dems would institute one, however. That's thrown around a lot but there hasn't even been a little bit of evidence that it is coming to pass.

 

[ReillyT]

See, ultimately, I think I wanted to see a slam dunk in this one. Some nebulous possilbity or idealistic young democratic voters isn't what concerned me. And, perhaps that's because of what my issues are right now. I want to see that there's no draft. My son, and only child, will be 18 at the end of the next two term presidency. I wanted to make sure that someone who promised the court to the religious right doesn't ever get to replace justices.

In my head, I just keep seeing an election map that looks like Nixon - McGovern (courtesy of the rules constructed by the guy who lost that one). Because I can tell you that my middle of the road friends who would have voted for Hillary are all voting for McCain. My more left-leaning friends would have voted for either one.

And that isn't because I'm racist or any of the other lovely things that Obama supporters like tossing at Hillary supporters. I always thought this one was Hillary's and that Obama should be her VP and go for it in 2016. And what really ticked me off? Listening to Mike Barnacle on Joe Scarborough's show this a.m. talk about how the press didn't really like Hillary b/c her people were arrogant to the press. Not exactly a good reason to start pushing an Obama candidacy, but I think it's a good chunk of what happened.

Well, if you want to see a slam-dunk, start contributing to Barack Obama, and talk to your middle of the road friends. I would be doing the same if the candidate were Clinton. The election is still within our grasps if we just remember why we vote Democrat in the first place.

I agree that part of the bad press Clinton gets probably stems from stuff like this, but the media is composed of people, who like all people can be spiteful and subjective. Politicians should remember this when they deal with the press.

 

[ReillyT]

Um, your realize this is the DNC, right?

Good point, but perhaps disunity is a sign of heterogeneity, which might not be a bad thing all told.

 

[jillian]

Well, if you want to see a slam-dunk, start contributing to Barack Obama, and talk to your middle of the road friends. I would be doing the same if the candidate were Clinton. The election is still within our grasps if we just remember why we vote Democrat in the first place.

I agree that part of the bad press Clinton gets probably stems from stuff like this, but the media is composed of people, who like all people can be spiteful and subjective. Politicians should remember this when they deal with the press.

My middle of the road friends say "I hate him" (about Obama) when you try to point out the mess that McCain would make. Seriously. It actually surprised me because I don't hate him. I just don't think he's ready. I also think people underestimate just how much damage michelle's comments did IN CONJUNCTION WITH the Rev Wright stuff. It really turned people off.

I'll remember that Hillary should have been nicer when McCain's 100 year war causes them to institute a draft.

I'm not sniping at you, btw... but I find this entire situation horrendous. I just hope Obama busts his butt to mend fences with the middle of the road folk. He can't win an election based on college kids and the intelligensia.

 

[ReillyT]

I'm not sniping at you, btw... but I find this entire situation horrendous. I just hope Obama busts his butt to mend fences with the middle of the road folk. He can't win an election based on college kids and the intelligensia.

I agree, but the last electoral college projections (I know it is still early) currently have him beating McCain and he hasn't exactly had the cakewalk last 2 months that McCain has. I think he will bring them around once the primary season is behind us.

 

[jillian]

I agree, but the last electoral college projections (I know it is still early) currently have him beating McCain and he hasn't exactly had the cakewalk last 2 months that McCain has. I think he will bring them around once the primary season is behind us.

I really hope you're right. But as for the electoral college maps, they're pretty even right now:

2008 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

Politics | Election 2008 | Interactive Electoral College map | Seattle Times Newspaper

Election 2008: Presidential, Senate and House Races Updated Daily

as are the polls:

WH2008: General

And I don't think Obama is going to win Florida under any set of circumstances and the election is going to come down to a bunch of old jews in century village, boca raton.

 

[Steerpike]

I agree, but the last electoral college projections (I know it is still early) currently have him beating McCain and he hasn't exactly had the cakewalk last 2 months that McCain has. I think he will bring them around once the primary season is behind us.

Too early to say, though. I think Obama can continue to make headway. If he is ahead now, it's not by much. But if he has any other Jeremiah Wrights in his background his own campaign ought to get all that stuff out there now so it can be over and dealt with by Nov. An October surprise could hurt him, particularly as close as things look to be.

 

[jillian]

Aren't the democrats the only ones who've seriously proposed a draft since the war started. I know I saw Charles Rangel on TV about it. I doubt the GOP or the Dems would institute one, however. That's thrown around a lot but there hasn't even been a little bit of evidence that it is coming to pass.

Not the "democrats", though some have used the "d" word. truth is that the repubs can't keep overusing our troops without a draft. and it will hit the fan during the next presidency one way or another. now, given that mccain has already said he's a one-termer, he isn't going to worry much about popular opinion about that kind of decision.

 

[Steerpike]

Not the "democrats", though some have used the "d" word. truth is that the repubs can't keep overusing our troops without a draft. and it will hit the fan during the next presidency one way or another. now, given that mccain has already said he's a one-termer, he isn't going to worry much about popular opinion about that kind of decision.

I don't know. I think they can continue to do it without a draft, and even if it isn't a great idea they'll probably do it rather than institute one and take the political damage.

I don't think any candidate is going to be able to immediately withdraw all the troops so whoever wins is going to have a mess to deal with in one respect or another.

 

[Jon]

I agree, but the last electoral college projections (I know it is still early) currently have him beating McCain and he hasn't exactly had the cakewalk last 2 months that McCain has. I think he will bring them around once the primary season is behind us.

What electoral projections are you looking at?

Use the maps Jillian provided, plug in current polls from all the swing states. McCain wins.

Now change that map and use the polls as if Clinton were running. Clinton wins.

It's a sad day in America, really.

 

[ReillyT]

What electoral projections are you looking at?

Use the maps Jillian provided, plug in current polls from all the swing states. McCain wins.

Now change that map and use the polls as if Clinton were running. Clinton wins.

It's a sad day in America, really.

The electoral college poll I was looking at was the one at realclearpolitics.com.

Currently, it has Obama 228, McCain 190, Toss up (states too close to call) 120.

With respect to a Clinton ticket, it is Clinton 229, McCain 168, Toss up 141.

I think "sad day in America" may be a bit melodramatic for the conclusion of a primary season. This isn't Pearl Harbor or the day Kennedy was shot or anything like that. We are just choosing a party candidate.

 

[Jon]

The electoral college poll I was looking at was the one at realclearpolitics.com.

Currently, it has Obama 228, McCain 190, Toss up (states too close to call) 120.

With respect to a Clinton ticket, it is Clinton 229, McCain 168, Toss up 141.

Which again brings up the argument that Clinton puts more states into play. When I calculated it based on current polls, I have Clinton getting 301 electoral votes, which is a big victory. I had McCain winning with something like 285 over Obama.

 

[ReillyT]

Which again brings up the argument that Clinton puts more states into play. When I calculated it based on current polls, I have Clinton getting 301 electoral votes, which is a big victory. I had McCain winning with something like 285 over Obama.

Maybe she does. I don't know. It is a pointless question at this stage.

Too early to say what will happen in the general. Maybe Obama will pull away. Maybe he won't. It still looks like he is generally in a decent position at the start.

 

[Jon]

Maybe she does. I don't know. It is a pointless question at this stage.

Too early to say what will happen in the general. Maybe Obama will pull away. Maybe he won't. It still looks like he is generally in a decent position at the start.

What's more likely to happen - Clinton will increase her leads in swing states, or Obama will close the gaps in swing states?