Fed Study Vindicates Trump Trade Policy: 150 Years of Evidence Shows Tariffs Lower Inflation

[trumptman]

A Reconsideration of Trade TheoryThe paper's findings overturn decades of consensus among mainstream economists about tariff effects. Trade theory has long held that tariffs are economically inefficient, raising consumer prices while reducing overall prosperity. Yet this study of 150 years of actual tariff episodes suggests the real-world effects are far more complex than textbook models suggest.The research suggests that tariff shocks operate primarily through aggregate demand mechanisms rather than through the simple cost-push mechanism that trade models emphasize. This distinction matters enormously. It means that tariffs can be used as a policy tool without triggering the consumer price spirals that economists have warned about for generations.Although, even here, the results are merely suggestive. It's not clear from the research why tariffs push down inflation and employment, only that they do.The study's authors note the surprising scarcity of rigorous empirical research on tariff effects. "There is surprisingly little empirical evidence on the aggregate macroeconomic effects of tariff changes," they observe, "with most studies focused on partial equilibrium effects."By grounding their analysis in historical evidence rather than theoretical assumptions, Barnichon and Singh have forced a reckoning with how much the policy consensus rested on untested premises.

The people who "study" rather than do and are "experts" at their own studies, are turning out to be wrong again.

"Our analysis shows that our studies are correct using the analysis in our next study."

Yes but what about the real world.

"It will do what we demand because of course we are the experts!"

You can tell that they can't defend their claims. They just dismiss and worst of all, they never explain why all the "losing" has to come at the expense of the American economy, the American tax payer and American citizens, especially so the winners can be foreign countries, multinational giant corporations and billionaires.

It's time to support fair trade, not free trade. That should always be the path going forward.

 

[JackOfNoTrades]

The people who "study" rather than do and are "experts" at their own studies, are turning out to be wrong again.

"Our analysis shows that our studies are correct using the analysis in our next study."

Yes but what about the real world.

"It will do what we demand because of course we are the experts!"

You can tell that they can't defend their claims. They just dismiss and worst of all, they never explain why all the "losing" has to come at the expense of the American economy, the American tax payer and American citizens, especially so the winners can be foreign countries, multinational giant corporations and billionaires.

It's time to support fair trade, not free trade. That should always be the path going forward.

No...they don't lower inflation.

What lies do you have to tell yourself to get to sleep at night?
Why do you think Trump is cutting tariffs?....duh...inflation...higher prices...which we told you was going to happen..and then did.

 

[MisterBeale]

Thomas Sowell on Trump's Tariffs | Uncommon Knowledge​

7 months ago

 

[mudwhistle]

No...they don't lower inflation.

What lies do you have to tell yourself to get to sleep at night?
Why do you think Trump is cutting tariffs?....duh...inflation...higher prices...which we told you was going to happen..and then did.

Trump is using tariffs to even the playing field on imports.
He's reducing foreign tariffs by threatening tariffs on other countries.

 

[JackOfNoTrades]

Trump is using tariffs to even the playing field on imports.
He's reducing foreign tariffs by threatening tariffs on other countries.

Which doesn't work. This is supported by historical data, Mr Spock. It's not logical.

Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue | Brookings

In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.

www.brookings.edu

 

[mudwhistle]

Which doesn't work. This is supported by historical data, Mr Spock. It's not logical.

Tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise revenue | Brookings

In this explainer, Jay C. Shambaugh shows why tariffs are a particularly bad way to raise funds for the U.S. government.

www.brookings.edu

**** the Brookings institute.
They are biased.
Trump used tariffs to get some pretty sweet deals for us.
You see he's rich and doesn't need kick-back money like previous presidents.
He's un-corruptible.

 

[JackOfNoTrades]

**** the Brookings institute.
They are biased.
Trump used tariffs to get some pretty sweet deals for us.
You see he's rich and doesn't need kick-back money like previous presidents.
He's un-corruptible.

They are a neutral think tank. They are accused at times of bias to the left or right, but have always been the voice of reason on economic policy. Not left. Not right.

All Trump's tariff wars have done are raise prices.
Those "sweet" deals haven't translated to cheaper cost of goods...or cost of living.

What rock do you live under? He's been corrupt his entire adult life.

 

[HikerGuy83]

No...they don't lower inflation.

Oh, hey....

The documentation you meant to attach didn't make it.

Looking forward to it.

 

[JackOfNoTrades]

Oh, hey....

The documentation you meant to attach didn't make it.

Looking forward to it.

Read the linked study Mr Potter. There will be a quiz.

EDIT - Post #5.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Read the linked study Mr Potter. There will be a quiz.

EDIT - Post #5.

Not in post #2 which is where you make the claim.

Sorry there Weasly.

 

[JackOfNoTrades]

Not in post #2 which is where you make the claim.

Sorry there Weasly.

Not my problem, Mr Potter. It's been documented.
Go back to brandishing your Elder Wand.

 

[HikerGuy83]

All Trump's tariff wars have done are raise prices.

Except the fiscal 2025 deficit was revised down by 200 billion and attributed primarily to tarrifs.

For the first time in several years the deficit actually was lower than the previous year.

Even though Biden had it on a parth to a 150 billion increase.....Trump was able to lower it.

More winning

 

[JackOfNoTrades]

Except the fiscal 2025 deficit was revised down by 200 billion and attributed primarily to tarrifs.

For the first time in several years the deficit actually was lower than the previous year.

Even though Biden had it on a parth to a 150 billion increase.....Trump was able to lower it.

More winning

Sigh....always someone who thinks little parlor tricks do the job.
Tariffs will not reduce the deficit/debt long term. Smoke and mirrors.
But hey, he keeps the supple and compliant (you) on board.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-1-trillion-just-got-lopped-off-trumps-expected-tariff-windfall-180131433.html

 

[HikerGuy83]

Sigh....always someone who thinks little parlor tricks do the job.
Tariffs will not reduce the deficit/debt long term. Smoke and mirrors.
But hey, he keeps the supple and compliant (you) on board.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-1-trillion-just-got-lopped-off-trumps-expected-tariff-windfall-180131433.html

I just told you what was reported.

If you want to argue that the deficit didn't come down, be my guest.

Otherwise, have some more turkey.

 

[JackOfNoTrades]

I just told you what was reported.

If you want to argue that the deficit didn't come down, be my guest.

Otherwise, have some more turkey.

Can you do me a favor and at least post something to back your BS up?
I understand you want to argue that parlor tricks reduce the deficit..but it isn't a long term solution.
I get it. The man is a GOD in your eyes...but he's just a bullshit artist.
This has been studied for a long time.

Put up...or..well, you know.

 

[Care4all]

**** the Brookings institute.
They are biased.
Trump used tariffs to get some pretty sweet deals for us.
You see he's rich and doesn't need kick-back money like previous presidents.
He's un-corruptible.

It's just the opposite Mud....no one has been more corruptible than him....imo.

money talks, in his world.....the more you have, the more you want more.... and more..... and more....and he's been unable to keep separate his personal dealings from govt dealings...

 

[shockedcanadian]

Tariffs in general are not beneficial to a nation except when they need to protect industries and counter abuses by other nations.

China cheats, EU hits everyone with tariffs and blocks market access. On and on.

This is primarily about fairness, and, it strikes a dent into you $38T over the years.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Put up...or..well, you know.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/16/us-budget-deficit-lower-in-2025-tariffs-debt-payments-both-at-records.html?msockid=14514fd6c89968f302cc59edc96c69b2

I understand you want to argue that parlor tricks reduce the deficit..but it isn't a long term solution.

It did lower the deficit. Short term only....maybe so. But it did lower it, as I claimed. It may not be a long term solution, but I never claimed it was.

I get it. The man is a GOD in your eyes

You've got your head up your backside. That's what you've got.

I have been quite frank about how I feel about Trump.

but he's just a bullshit artist.

I don't trust anything he says.

But I do trust that he won't do as much damage as the left.

 

[JackOfNoTrades]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/16/us-budget-deficit-lower-in-2025-tariffs-debt-payments-both-at-records.html?msockid=14514fd6c89968f302cc59edc96c69b2

It did lower the deficit. Short term only....maybe so. But it did lower it, as I claimed. It may not be a long term solution, but I never claimed it was.


You've got your head up your backside. That's what you've got.

I have been quite frank about how I feel about Trump.


I don't trust anything he says.

But I do trust that he won't do as much damage as the left.

So...nothing. Except your Alt-Right simping...I get it. You like parlor tricks...and yes..you did claim it would "lower the deficit"...
C'mon. Own it. I'll have more respect for you if you do.

 

[HikerGuy83]

So...nothing. Except your Alt-Right simping...I get it. You like parlor tricks...and yes..you did claim it would "lower the deficit"...
C'mon. Own it. I'll have more respect for you if you do.

I said his tariffs were credited with lowering the fiscal 2025 deficit.

What part of that don't you understand.