Talking about fact checking and figuring out the probably outcome, try this.
Trump will lose badly
Statistically Trump has the support of MAGA, Freedom Caucus, Tea Party, and some of the Christian right within the Republican Party. The entire party represents 29% of the total electorate and the above mentioned groups amount to 52% of Republican voters with is only about 15% of the total electorate. 29% of voters are registered Democrats who will never vote for Trump. 40% are registered as Independent of which 48% say they lean Republican but only 46% of those say they would vote for Trump - which comes to 8.8% of voters.
So, at this point in time, Trump appears to have nearly 24% of the total electorate in his pocket - even though he is likely to win the Republican Party Nominee. Of the remaining voters, he could probably garner another 10% provided he doesn't alienate anyone else. So, Trump's best case maximum is closer to 34% in this election which is considerably lower than the last. All that, with nearly a year to go. Lot's of folks don't like Biden but will hold their collective noses and vote for him because they're terrified of Trump who attempted a coup during the last election.