It has been two years since forecasters felt this good about the economic outlook.
In the
latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and academic economists lowered the chances of a recession within the next year to 29% from 39% in the
January survey. That was the lowest probability since April 2022, when the chances of a recession were set at 28%.
Economists, in fact, don’t think the economy will get even close to a recession. In January, they on average forecast sub-1% growth in each of the first three quarters of this year. Now, they expect growth to bottom out this year at an inflation-adjusted 1.4% in the third quarter.
Just 10% of survey respondents think the economy will experience at least one quarter of negative growth over the next 12 months, down from 33% in January.
“The U.S. economy is performing very well,” EconForecaster economist James Smith said in the survey. “We’re truly the envy of the world.”
The
U.S. economy has outpaced the growth of other G7 countries since the pandemic, with GDP growing 7.4% since Q4 2019 compared to 0.3%-4% growth for countries like Germany, France, and the UK. We remain a global powerhouse. You Go Biden!!!