"never" is simply my take. I don't think nato would ever have gotten there unless politics somehow changed. Ukraine housed a LOT of the USSR's nukes. Chernobyl was supposed to be a "jewel." Russia's been devoted to 'reclaiming Ukraine ever since Putin came to power, 30 years ago.
In March 2016,
President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker stated that it would take at least 20–25 years for Ukraine to join the EU and NATO.
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en.wikipedia.org
Ukraine doens't even meet turkey's democratic standing. It's corruption is endemic. The driving force for Ukraine to join Nato, has been from Nato's perspective, Putin's aggression. An non-aligned status was always preferable. But, Putin makes no secret that his goal is reacquiring Russia's empire of puppet states.
Ukraine's corruption also precluded EU membership, at least until Ukraine made more reforms. But Ukraine is going to be in the EU, and that was one thing Putin tried to stop.
Now Putin says his goal is not regime change is not his goal. And neutral status is good enough.
en.wikipedia.org
ANd Blinkin says Russia must be precluded from future invasions. So, if Ukraine is slated to be in the EU trading block, and Russia has to be prevented from invading again .... how?
But Putin's still ordered the murder of thousands of civilians. There's billions in econ damage. There's nothing on donbass or crimea.