Reserve decline isn't shortage of supply. There is a huge difference. You should learn it if you want to discuss oil topics without looking like..well...a parrot.
Considering the entirety of his entire interview, and his numerous other statements on the matter, it's inferred rather clearly that he's referring to both. Reserve decline most certainly will lead to supply shortage. And considering conventional production has flat-lined for 7 years, and the global economy has been collapsing for the past 4, it's obviously become a problem.
I asked you to choose a point you understood, and could defend. You haven't done that yet on the two points referenced, 1) how Hirsch's 2005 report can be used to refute his own statements and B) there were no shortages of supply in the referenced time period and speculators were involved as much as market constraint during the 2008 price run up.
LOL. Quite the contrary. Every point I've beaten your tired ass with I've understood, and the two you're squawking about above were defended effectively. You spun the first one, and deflected from the second. The price points have been rising rapidly for over 10 years, so to pretend speculation has much to do with long-term pricing confirms again that you have no idea what you're talking about.
If you don't like the points you choose, and aren't capable of defending them without more cutting and pasting and not a single independent thought, I recommend you take up drooling on yourself as a profession, if that is all you are capable of.
Every point I've chosen has left you looking more and more foolish. Every time I offer personal perspective, you truncate the post, pretend you don't understand, or spin the intent. You're just a dishonest fraud who continues to dance around a topic that's become completely untenable for you.
Your propaganda can't fight back. Apparently, neither can you, when given every opportunity.
Oh, so it's propaganda again? We're back to asserting the men I've presented, way further up the oil production chain than your fraudulent ass, are all lying?
JiggsCasey said:
Maybe one of them can explain to you how spare capacity has nothing to do with the question of overall reserve totals. You seem to have profound difficulty with that notion.
Learn the difference between production and reserves, and you can trip over your inadequate knowledge on this topic next.
Poetic irony here. I'm not the one trying to pretend spare capacity is an indication of long term reserve health. That would be you, toolbox.
Do try and find someone to quote however, and then read up a little on the difference, certainly at this point in time you don't realize even what the differences are between them.
More irony. You're the one who needs to read up on the difference.
JiggsCasey said:
Meanwhile, I'll be at the annual ASPO conference. It's coming up in a few weeks in D.C. Bring your friends, and present your "facts."
They aren't allowed to attend. You see Jiggsy, peak oil believers, even ones with functioning brains who aren't parrots, can't dispute the facts of this case any better than you can at the end of the day, their more advanced understanding of church dogma notwithstanding.
Yes, you keep parroting this mantra over and over again. Hasn't helped with your horrible gameplan of fail. Every challenge you've been presented with, you've pussied out of.
Where's the oil going to come from to meet future demand? How much unconventional oil has anyone claimed can be attained going forward? How much already is produced? Why is net energy not important in accessing the end of growth?
Every time, you punt. You suck at this, because your argument has no where to go, and yet you must keep your chin up and maintain the pattern epistemic closure that your team is so famous for.
And this is because you all suffer from the limitations of your belief system, rather than confronting the science and facts of resource depletion.
LOL. What "science and facts" do you think you have presented that shows peak oil is decades away? Still waiting for it.
When you get done patting your arrogant self on the back for a job not well done, do roll up your sleeves and, for once, get to the "science and facts" part of your piss poor overall argument.
In the meantime, if you can't find a way to attend the latest ASPO conference, please do STFU about me attending your fraudulent industry circle jerk.
Ah well, here's a primer for you... You know, where you pretend all these men are lying and not as smart as your goofy self, despite challenging cornucopians to show how they arrive at their data:
DOE OIL & GAS SUPPLY FORECASTS DANGEROUSLY MISLEADING
Global Economy Threatened As World Oil Production Stalls For Seventh Year
The Oil Drum | ASPO-USA Conference, November 2 - 5; Letter to Secretary Chu
“Despite rising demand and a large increase in oil prices, world oil supply has been on a plateau; it has stayed relatively constant since 2005,” said Robert L. Hirsch, co-author of The Impending World Energy Mess. “Simultaneously, production from existing world oil fields is declining at a high rate. Both of these developments are unprecedented, yet DOE and EIA [Energy Information Administration] have dismissed them as not being of major concern.”
“We are not running out of oil. But we appear to be running out of oil that we can afford.”
Jim Baldauf, president and co-founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas-USA
Tom Whipple, a former CIA analyst and chief editor of ASPO-USA’s Peak Oil Review, said, “There are literally dozens of reports and analyses appearing every week around the world pointing to the fact that the world is facing major challenges in maintaining, much less growing, the global supply of oil in next few years.” He added, “Our concern here today is the growing disconnect between the solid evidence of serious troubles ahead and the Department of Energy’s benign projections concerning the availability of fossil fuels in the next 30 years.”
We understand, Mr. Whipple. We deal with the same frauds right here on our little forum who have a psychological blockage when it comes to basic understanding of the Earth's natural limits (and the data that bears those limits out, plain as day).