Election Reform and the Spoiler Effect

I did. Outside of the usual petty, incorrect criticisms (It's complicated! Voters are too stupid to rank! It's a trick by the other side!), the only valid complaint was that it weakens political parties. And that might be true. I'm OK with that.

Except we saw in NY and AK that it was too complicated, and there were a lot of mistake.

Look, man, I get that you are probably seen as too looney for a major party to take you seriously (not even the GOP, which has gone truly looney in recent years), but creating a confusing method of voting isn't going to fix the problem.
 
Yeah, you think that, but is "lesser of three evils" any better.
That's not what RCV is.
Let's be blunt here. There were no third parties in AK with RCV. It was one Democrat vs. two Republicans, and the REpublican lost because the vote was split on the first round and votes didn't carry over into the second round.
That's simply not true. No vote was "split".

 
Except we saw in NY and AK that it was too complicated, and there were a lot of mistake.

Look, man, I get that you are probably seen as too looney ..
You simply can't post without snide insults. Go fuck yourself.
 
That's not what RCV is.

That's simply not true. No vote was "split".


Except it wasn't. Because people who voted for Begich didn't understand the process, votes that SHOULD have gone to Palin didn't.
 
Except it wasn't. Because people who voted for Begich didn't understand the process, votes that SHOULD have gone to Palin didn't.
Again, that's not true. Palin lost because many Begich voters simply didn't like Palin and ranked her lower than Peltola. There's no evidence suggesting they were confused. Palin is just an idiot and even some Republicans can't stomach her nonsense. That's how ranked choice voting is supposed to work, and it did.
 
At first I thought my computer was broke, JoeB131 and me agree on something, lol.
That's not a coincidence. Both parties care more about their own success than the preferences of voters.
 
It's the same thing. Runoffs are just a lot more expensive and time consuming.
It's not the same thing. When a candidate is eliminated in the primary, his voters can vote for the other candidate in the runoff.

Too many people look at the RCV ballot and only pick one candidate.
 
Lurking at the heart of our extreme political dysfunction is a fundamentally flawed election process. The way we currently vote, everyone picks their favorite candidate, and whoever gets the most votes wins. This is called "plurality voting". Sometimes referred to as "first past the post" voting.

It sounds reasonable enough, and if there are only two candidates running it kind of works. But it breaks down when there are more than two candidates. It creates a situation where a candidate can win, even though a majority of the voters don't like them. This problem is called the "spoiler effect". And it happens fairly often.

One good example is the 1992 US Presidential Election. In that election there were three high-profile candidates. Bush Sr., Bill Clinton and Ross Perot. Conservative votes were split between Bush Sr.(37.4%) and Perot(18.9%). Bill Clinton won the election with only 43% of the vote - even though the majority of voters would have preferred a conservative President.

It happened again in 2000 when the liberal vote was split between Gore and Nader. Most Nader voters would have chosen Gore over Bush - Gore would have likely won if not for Nader being in the race.

The problem with the spoiler effect is broader than just electing the wrong candidate. To win, the major parties must discourage any like minded candidates from running in the same race. That's why the two major parties viciously attack third party candidates, even when they mostly agree with them - especially when they mostly agree with them. They actually encourage third party candidates that they disagree with, because that will split the vote of the other side. It's a backassward mess that causes a lot of unnecessary acrimony.

One way around the spoiler effect is requiring the winner to have at least 50% of the vote. Some states have implemented this (eg Georgia). The idea is that if no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote in the election, the "spoilers" are eliminated from the ballot, and everyone votes again in a runoff election. With only two candidates left, it's a certainty that one of them will get 50% of the vote.

But these runoff elections are expensive, time consuming (we might not know the results for weeks or months) and suffer from "voter fatigue" - the turnout for the runoffs is generally much lower than the initial vote. They also exclude third or fourth place vote-getters, who might have actually been the consensus winner if they'd eliminated the "spoilers" one at a time, instead of all at once.

So runoffs neutralize the spoiler effect, but most states have decided they aren't affordable and not worth the extra trouble.

This is the problem that vote-ranking systems solve. Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) or Ranked Choice Voting(RCV), lets voters rank the candidates in order of their preference. Essentially, the are casting their votes in potential runoff elections when they first go to the polls. You can, for example, say "Nader is my favorite, but if he's not close, I'd rather have Gore than Bush. Or "Perot is my favorite, but if he doesn't get a majority, I'd rather my vote go to Bush than Clinton".

It's a subtle change, but it has some really nice benefits. First of all, the major parties no longer have incentive to attack third party candidates. Instead of alienating third party voters, the major parties will have incentive to make an honest appeal to them. It also does away with the lesser of two evils conceit. I you really think Harris and Trump both suck, you can give your first place vote to a candidate you do like, yet still have some say if, in the end, Harris and Trump are the only two left.

This kind of reform is happening all over the country - mostly at the grass roots, local level. People recognize the improvement and like having a more expressive vote. But the two entrenched parties have taken note, and are fighting it vigorously. Turns out they kind of like seeing us limited to two choices (as long as they are one of the choices). They claim that the ballot is too complicated and that voters are too stupid to rank the candidates. Or they suggest it's a plot by the other side to trick voters! They site case studies where their candidate didn't win - which of course means the system is bad. :rolleyes: All of their complaints, that I've heard, fall apart on examination. Most of them don't even make sense because they don't understand how RCV works. They just know it will get rid of the lesser-of-two-evils fearmongering - and that's all they know.
That's why we have an electoral college.
 
okay, several flaws with your argument, the first being that Perot made it impossible for Bush to win. Clinton was leading Bush during the period where Perot had withdrawn from the race, and most exit polling showed that his voters would have split between Clinton and Bush evenly. What made that more complicated was that because we have the asinine stupidity that is the Electoral College, Clinton did end up winning states he had no business winning, like GA and MT.



Gore would have won if Jeb hadn't stolen the election, but that's an entirely different discussion. The problem with the Ranked Choice voting is that is assumes that the kind of mutant that votes third party would want to make a second choice.



Except we've already seen the kind of clusterfuck that RCV can be in NYC's Democratic primary. It wasn't an issue of partisanship because everyone was running as a Democrat. Eric Adams talked out of both sides of his mouth on police reform, and got 30% of the vote. But it took 8 rounds of ballot eliminating to get him over 50%, and even then, so many people were confused by the process that most of them didn't bother. (Of 10 million in NYC, only 800K or so cast ballots in the primary.)

Another example of what a cluster it can be is the 2022 AK election. The GOP split it's vote between Sarah Palin and Nick Begich, but enough of Begich's voters picked the Democrat as their second choice that Palin was eliminated. I am betting that probably wasn't the outcome they were expecting.

This year, Peltola and Begich are going at it again, but the GOP Lt. Governor withdrew from the race to keep it from turning into another clusterfuck like they had in 2022.

And sorry, I use the term "Clusterfuck" a lot here, because that is the only way to describe it.

A better system would be to have runoff elections of the top two vote-getters because then they can concentrate their messages on each other and have a much more focused race.
election denier !
 
It's not the same thing. When a candidate is eliminated in the primary, his voters can vote for the other candidate in the runoff.
They can do that in RCV. That's what the ranking is for.
Too many people look at the RCV ballot and only pick one candidate.
And a lot of people don't go back for the runoff. Same thing.
 
The main thing is, we must preserve the status quo. The two party system is working really well for the two parties. Kumbaya!
in my lifetime, only one period occurred where the party in the White House held it for 12 years, 1981-1993. Mostly it was 8 years maximum. That speaks highly of the changing political winds.
 
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