Economic outlook during the year 2004?

[andy753]

I've noticed that this board, along with many others, has a pretty negative outlook on a lot of topics. Yeah, yeah, a thread in "Economy" during a DOWN economy will be full of trash and finger pointing, but what was this board like in 2004? Full of happiness and glee? I honestly don't know, I've only been on this board for about a year or so. Why the year 2004? Because before I became a retail business owner that year, I could care less about the economy. Up,down, left, right, who gives a crap. I admit I was pretty ignorant. But everyone seems soooooo sour nowadays, it makes me wonder how this board was back then.

 

[uscitizen]

Ohh it depends on which party you wer rooting for.
If a republican it was great, if a Dem not so good.

Dems talked about falling wages, reps talked about average income being up.

Dems talked about jobs going overseas and the reps talked about how great the market was doing.

In 2006, most economomist and politicians were saying it will just be a little adjustment and won't last 6 months. I kept hearing that story for a couple of years.
Kinda like the iraq war, just another 6 months...

 

[Ernie S.]

Ohh it depends on which party you wer rooting for.
If a republican it was great, if a Dem not so good.

Dems talked about falling wages, reps talked about average income being up.

Dems talked about jobs going overseas and the reps talked about how great the market was doing.

In 2006, most economomist and politicians were saying it will just be a little adjustment and won't last 6 months. I kept hearing that story for a couple of years.
Kinda like the iraq war, just another 6 months...

Probably would have been, but then we elected a Democrat Congress.

 

[andy753]

Do you really think if we had a Republican congress the US would be better off? Basically the world would be in a horrible economic state, but the US would be thriving? I really don't think it's something we can blame on a party.

 

[william the wie]

Do you really think if we had a Republican congress the US would be better off? Basically the world would be in a horrible economic state, but the US would be thriving? I really don't think it's something we can blame on a party.

What amazes me is that so much attention is used assigning domestic blame:

Except for China and its trading partners whose bubble has not yet popped the US ran into proportionally smaller problems than just about anybody else in the world. And the bubble was and is pretty much worldwide. Poland and Switzerland are the two countries that have gone through the bust and credible arguments can be made that they did better than the US.

That's pretty much the end of the story. Everyone else is waiting to see if they will have an economy after the China bubble pops. Most of the rest of the Americas may very well not. Canada, Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Venezuela are heavily dependent on the China bubble keeping on keeping on. Likewise Africa, the EU, Southeast Asia and Australasia. So we are headed for a second leg down and Obama can't do diddly about it because he is not the president/premier of China and even that would probably not help.

The China bubble is popping now, actually it began popping about 3-4 months ago when China's working age population started going down. It was 3.25 years from the time AIG bailed out of the CDS market due to increasing risk before we hit meltdown. China being the big construction boom is going to pop faster and cause more damage than the US bubble bust.

In sum witch hunting when there are no real witches strikes me as absurd.

 

[Paulie]

Do you really think if we had a Republican congress the US would be better off? Basically the world would be in a horrible economic state, but the US would be thriving? I really don't think it's something we can blame on a party.

What amazes me is that so much attention is used assigning domestic blame:

Except for China and its trading partners whose bubble has not yet popped the US ran into proportionally smaller problems than just about anybody else in the world. And the bubble was and is pretty much worldwide. Poland and Switzerland are the two countries that have gone through the bust and credible arguments can be made that they did better than the US.

That's pretty much the end of the story. Everyone else is waiting to see if they will have an economy after the China bubble pops. Most of the rest of the Americas may very well not. Canada, Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Venezuela are heavily dependent on the China bubble keeping on keeping on. Likewise Africa, the EU, Southeast Asia and Australasia. So we are headed for a second leg down and Obama can't do diddly about it because he is not the president/premier of China and even that would probably not help.

The China bubble is popping now, actually it began popping about 3-4 months ago when China's working age population started going down. It was 3.25 years from the time AIG bailed out of the CDS market due to increasing risk before we hit meltdown. China being the big construction boom is going to pop faster and cause more damage than the US bubble bust.

In sum witch hunting when there are no real witches strikes me as absurd.

And gee, the bubble in China is because of money supply inflation.

What a crazy concept!

 

[uscitizen]

China has enough internal growth potential that they will be fine.

 

[andy753]

I thought in 2004 WE had eough internal growth potential?

 

[william the wie]

I thought in 2004 WE had eough internal growth potential?

That was the claim and there was better evidence for the US then than China now.

 

[andy753]

So back to the original question, was there a better overall outlook on this board in 2004? Or was it full of negative comments and finger pointing? I tried to bring up posts by date and couldn't. I like this board, but like many, I can only read this board for a certain amount of time before I feel like slitting my wrists. So far I have learned that Dems are going to destroy the world, so are Republicans. And I need to go buy food, ammo, water, and dig a hole in the ground. I just think it's pretty fun to read posts from a long time ago and see what people were saying and thinking. See who was right or wrong.

 

[william the wie]

So back to the original question, was there a better overall outlook on this board in 2004? Or was it full of negative comments and finger pointing? I tried to bring up posts by date and couldn't. I like this board, but like many, I can only read this board for a certain amount of time before I feel like slitting my wrists. So far I have learned that Dems are going to destroy the world, so are Republicans. And I need to go buy food, ammo, water, and dig a hole in the ground. I just think it's pretty fun to read posts from a long time ago and see what people were saying and thinking. See who was right or wrong.

The US will remain the best of the worst but that will not be enough to reelect Obama.

 

[Douger]

In 2006, most economomist and politicians were saying it will just be a little adjustment and won't last 6 months. I kept hearing that story for a couple of years.
Kinda like the iraq war, just another 6 months...

LOL. That's why I left, on a one way trip, in early 2005, ditched the dollar and jumped the Euro.
Then I dumped the Euro when it fell from 147 to 143.
I find the best advice in life is to do exactly the opposite of what is recommended by The Shepherds who are herding their sheep to the edge of a cliff.