Why did the unemployment rate go down — from 7.6 percent to 7.4 percent? Because the official “workforce” actually declined — by about 40,000 people. What could explain the drop, given the rise in population? “Ten thousand baby boomers turn 65 today” has become a demographic cliché (or meme, if you prefer). Barring a mass and age-selective plague, that means that 10,000 or so are also turning 66, their official Social Security retirement age. Many, if not most, baby boomers are retiring. And since 10,000 a day equals 300,000 a month, if two-thirds of them are hanging up their rock ‘n’ roll work shoes, Friday’s numbers would make sense: 200,000 or so retirees offsetting the 200,000 or so new working-age Americans.
I have long warned against making too much of any one monthÂ’s unemployment numbers. But the story told above is plausible, if not provable.