[Roger, understand your background. And makes sense. My background is mid thesis of an econ doctorate. Amateur would be a silly description, no?
I agree with most of what you say until you get to the point where you say no one can predict the future.
What exactly do you mean by that? You could drive an aircraft carrier through the size of the hole........
Do you mean exact day a crash will occur? Totally agree. Do you mean predict which type of policies work and don't work....ummm, you couldn't be more wrong. That's something a really seasoned macroeconomist would know.
Where you are also incorrect is that the experts on both sides are not even.
If you're as knee deep as I've been in economic HISTORY for 20 years now, you'd know that is unequivocally, undeniably wrong.
The Keynsian approach does not work in the long run. Especially not the Keynes on Steroids approach these idiots have taken in the WH.
Also the fact you're noncommittal to which policy is better shows you're not really a macro thinker.
I take that back. I absolutely agree you are looking at macro factors; I can just tell by the few words you typed. But as shocking as it may seem, there are some that think much MUCH more macro than you do. That entails knowing a lot of econ history for the past number of decades.
Well, again, it depends on definitions.
It's been my experience that most people in my profession think essentially like I do: That absolutes are dangerous and usually destructive. Ours is not a profession in which we have the luxury of making observations and positing theories based on our observations; we are investing people's money and have to take responsibilities for the results. So, economists and theories are fine, but we're operating in two different spheres. When I'm looking at the macro picture, I have to act on it.
When I say "no one can predict the future", I mean exactly that. There are "experts" in my profession who get it wrong 40% of the time and, with that batting average, are tremendously successful. The king of bonds, Bill Gross, completely misplayed the bond market about a year ago. And obviously, the world is growing more complex by the day and markets and economies are swayed by the unforeseen. So I simply don't believe that one person can predict what's going to happen, not for a minute.
Keynesian vs. free markets? This is an example of how absolutes are dangerous. Life is simply not the binary world that partisans want it to be. There will never be one or the other, it's all a matter of finding the proper and most effective equilibrium. Again, I'm under no obligation to take some politically-motivated stand. The world is changing every day.
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