Statistikhengst
Diamond Member
- Banned
- #1
This poll:
SurveyUSA Election Poll #21269 ,
conducted by SurveyUSA (SUSA), of Kentucky, shows some interesting stuff.
First, SUSA projected a Mitch McConnell win over challenger Matt Bevin, 55 to 35, +20.
Actual result:
News from The Associated Press
McConnell 60 / Bevin 35, +25.
So, SUSA pretty much nailed it.
But there is more in the poll:
In the poll, Rand Paul beats Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical matchup in his home-state, 48-44, +4, which is right in line with the last PPP (D) poll of the Commonwealth, from March 2014.
But here is the question that really caught my attention:
Here are the results:
62% of Kentuckians would throw EVERYONE out.
But even more telling about this data are the data subsets (also known as "internals").
That 62% stands for 62% of those who took the survey. But the breakdown for the 'throw all the bums out' vote is amazing:
Gender:
Male: 66%
Female: 58%
Age:
18-34: 61%
35-49: 63%
50-64: 63%
65 & up: 59%
Race:
White: 63%
Black: 52%
Type of interview:
Cellphone interviewee: 65%
Landline interviewee: 61%
Party Affliation:
Republican: 58%
Democratic: 64%
Independent: 66%
Ideology:
Conservative: 59%
Moderate: 67%
Liberal: 56%
Education:
H.S. 64%
Some College: 66%
4-year: 56%
Income:
Under 40K: 64%
40K - 80K: 64%
Over 80K: 61%
We see that pretty much across party, ideological, racial and financial lines, the "throw all the bums" out sentiment is uniform. Especially disconcerting for both parties should be that the peak value is under Moderates and Independents.
I usually don't go into so much detail about poll internals, but this one really stuck out.
Now, this is just one poll and just one state, but nonetheless, the information here is quite telling.
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How good is SUSA?
Pretty damned good, and considered pretty damned neutral, too.
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The last time we saw this much voter dissatisfaction in all corners, not just on the Right, not just on the Left?
1994.
So, I may be starting a series on the 'throw all the bums out' polling question, for I suspect it is going to be asked more often in this year.
SurveyUSA Election Poll #21269 ,
conducted by SurveyUSA (SUSA), of Kentucky, shows some interesting stuff.
First, SUSA projected a Mitch McConnell win over challenger Matt Bevin, 55 to 35, +20.
Actual result:
News from The Associated Press
McConnell 60 / Bevin 35, +25.
So, SUSA pretty much nailed it.
But there is more in the poll:
In the poll, Rand Paul beats Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical matchup in his home-state, 48-44, +4, which is right in line with the last PPP (D) poll of the Commonwealth, from March 2014.
But here is the question that really caught my attention:
Here are the results:
62% of Kentuckians would throw EVERYONE out.
But even more telling about this data are the data subsets (also known as "internals").
That 62% stands for 62% of those who took the survey. But the breakdown for the 'throw all the bums out' vote is amazing:
Gender:
Male: 66%
Female: 58%
Age:
18-34: 61%
35-49: 63%
50-64: 63%
65 & up: 59%
Race:
White: 63%
Black: 52%
Type of interview:
Cellphone interviewee: 65%
Landline interviewee: 61%
Party Affliation:
Republican: 58%
Democratic: 64%
Independent: 66%
Ideology:
Conservative: 59%
Moderate: 67%
Liberal: 56%
Education:
H.S. 64%
Some College: 66%
4-year: 56%
Income:
Under 40K: 64%
40K - 80K: 64%
Over 80K: 61%
We see that pretty much across party, ideological, racial and financial lines, the "throw all the bums" out sentiment is uniform. Especially disconcerting for both parties should be that the peak value is under Moderates and Independents.
I usually don't go into so much detail about poll internals, but this one really stuck out.
Now, this is just one poll and just one state, but nonetheless, the information here is quite telling.
----------------------------------------------
How good is SUSA?
Pretty damned good, and considered pretty damned neutral, too.
SUSA:
Survey USA (SUSA) was much quieter in 2012 than it was in 2008, where it put out 2 complete 50-state polling tables. This time around, SUSA really limited its polling and gave no reason as to why. That being said, SUSA did put out 11 end-polls and the mathematical bias is outstanding:
We see that SUSA nailed the results in Georgia and that it's overall bias is only R +0.67%. With a figure like that, we could claim that SUSA was the best pollster of all, but SUSA only polled 4 of the 12 battlegrounds (Ohio received the most polling from SUSA over the year) and where there was bias, it was inconsistent: it was the only pollster to have a real Liberal bias in Minnesota and one of the few to show a liberal bias in Missouri. However, its polling in New York, following hurricane Sandy, was exceptional. SUSA claims to be totally neutral, and based on the wording of it's questions and its willingness to take on contracts from all sides of the political spectrum, I take SUSA at it's word. What a shame: I wish SUSA would have polled all of the states 2 times at least, as it did in 2008.
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The last time we saw this much voter dissatisfaction in all corners, not just on the Right, not just on the Left?
1994.
So, I may be starting a series on the 'throw all the bums out' polling question, for I suspect it is going to be asked more often in this year.
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