Are you talking about complexity from one accident, like 2 bacteria gettin' busy one friday night and popping out a french poodle saturday afternoon? If so, you've introduced a 3rd option.
Evolution does not happen by accident, it is a very well defined process that involves accidents, big difference. Over millions of years, each species was designed just right for it's time and place so it had a better chance of surviving than its great-great-great grandparents. Evolution does not happen by accident at all. Don't confuse 1 mutation with evolution, they are two totally different things.
I think this misunderstanding of what evolution is explains the "watch in the forest" example and why ID proponents even bother to raise it. If a watch is found in a forest, chances are it was created for 2 reasons:
1. We have never witnessed a watch reproduce or die so there is no possibility of natural selection.
2. There is not likely any survival advantage to knowing the exact time in a forest. Since the watch does not have a natural advantage, one can presume that it was placed there.
Evolution is not an accident, it is a process of natural selection that relies on tiny accidents. Since the process is completely not applicable to watches in forests, I actually find that the watch example exposes a very basic misunderstanding of what evolution is all about.