Die Welt Veteran Journalist: “Ignoring Warming Stop Would Be Ridiculous”, Missing Hea

[daveman]

Die Welt Veteran Journalist: “Ignoring Warming Stop Would Be Ridiculous”, Missing Heat “Perhaps Just Doesn’t Exist”

Veteran journalist Ulli Kulke at German national daily Die Welt has a commentary at his Die Welt blog about the upcoming IPCC report. IPCC: Discuss or Ignore Warming Stop. He starts:

According to News Service Bloomberg it is currently being discussed whether to mention the ongoing 15-year pause in global in the 5th Assessment Report“ (AR 5) to be released in late September, or if perhaps it would be better to simply ignore it in order not to unnecessarily supply so-called ‘climate skeptics’ with ammunition.”​

Alarmist scientists find themselves in a dilemma and aren’t sure what to do. They are eager to argue back against skeptics’s claims that the warming has stopped, yet are petrified of bringing it up. Some are saying it is simply best to ignore the pause in warming. But Kulke writes:

The attempt to keep the warming pause out of the ongoing discussion surrounding the upcoming AR 5 would be ridiculous. Semantic and formal splitting of hairs would not stick because it cannot be denied that also the In-group of the IPCC scientists have acknowledged the stop in warming - at least internally – and view this as the biggest problem. It is “a travesty” they cannot explain. That quote comes from Kevin Trenberth, a lead author of the 2001 and 2007 IPCC reports. [...] In the meantime Trenberth suspects, according to his models, that the missing heat is somewhere in the depths of the oceans. But this is not certain in any way; perhaps it just doesn’t exist.”
​

Scientists in a jam

Kulke then adds that the IPCC also will not be able to downgrade the warming pause to a mere weather event and claim that it has nothing to do with overall climate:

Just because it is still in the range of weather and has not yet reached the time span that one uses to discuss climate, ignoring the warming stop would also be outrageous because it would mean you couldn’t mention any weather event that is not at least 30 years long.”​

If increasing frequency is the test that alarmists like to use, then it’s tough to get more frequent than every year over the last 15. You can’t claim a team is in a slump-trend after it has just won 15 games in a row.​

Note to the IPCC:

Ignoring reality doesn't mean it's not there.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Then we don't truly understand physics. Who knows maybe these missing pieces could lead us towards the discovery of anti-gravity and time travel.

This isn't bad news. ;0

 

[Abraham3]

I would like to see ANY evidence that the IPCC is doing considering ignoring the hiatus. I think that's complete bullshit.

Here is the official outline for Fifth Analysis Report, Working Group I (Physical Basis). Let me know how one uses this outline but ignores the temperature trends of the last 15 years:

AGREED REFERENCE MATERIAL FOR THE
IPCC FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
• Working Group I outline

Chapter 1: Introduction
Executive Summary
• Rationale and key concepts of the WG1 contribution
• Treatment of uncertainty
• Climate change projections since FAR
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
Executive Summary
• Changes in surface temperature and soil temperature
• Changes in temperature, humidity and clouds
• Changes in atmospheric composition
• Changes in radiation fields and energy budget
• Changes in hydrology, runoff, precipitation and drought
• Changes in atmospheric circulation, including wind
• Spatial and temporal patterns of climate variability
• Changes in extreme events, including tropical and extratropical storms
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean
Executive Summary
• Changes in ocean temperature and heat content
• Ocean salinity change and freshwater fluxes
• Sea level change, ocean waves and storm surges
• Ocean biogeochemical changes, including ocean acidification
• Changes in ocean surface processes
• Changes in ocean circulation
• Spatial and temporal patterns of ocean variability
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere
Executive Summary
• Changes in ice sheets, including mass balance
• Changes in ice shelves
• Changes in glaciers and ice caps
• Sea ice variability and trends
• Snow and ice cover variability and trends
• Changes in frozen ground
• Dynamics of ice sheets, ice shelves, ice caps, glaciers and sea ice
Frequently Asked Questions Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives
Executive Summary
• Characteristics of early instrumental, documentary and natural climate archives
• Reconstruction of radiative forcing and climate response
• Reconstruction of regional variability and extremes
• Abrupt climate changes and their regional expression
• Sea level and ice sheets: patterns, amplitudes and rates of change
• Paleoclimate perspective on irreversibility in the climate system
• Paleodata-model intercomparisons
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles
Executive Summary
• Past changes in CO2, CH4, N2O and biogeochemical cycles
• Recent trends in global and regional sources, sinks and inventories, including
land use change
• Processes and understanding of changes, including ocean acidification
• Interactions between the carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, including the
nitrogen cycle
• Projections of changes in carbon and other biogeochemical cycles
• Greenhouse gas stabilisation
• Carbon cycle – climate feedbacks and irreversibility
• Geoengineering involving the carbon cycle
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols
Executive Summary
• Observations of clouds and their representation in models
• Coupling of clouds, water vapour, precipitation and the large-scale circulation
• Cloud and water vapour feedbacks and their effects on climate sensitivity
• Observations of aerosols and their representation in models
• Aerosol types including black carbon: chemistry, sources, sinks and distribution
• Direct and indirect aerosol forcing and effects, including contrails and cosmic rays
• Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions
• Geoengineering involving clouds and aerosols
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing
Executive Summary
• Natural radiative forcing changes: solar and volcanic
• Anthropogenic radiative forcing, including effects from land surface changes
• Effects of atmospheric chemistry and composition
• Spatial and temporal expression of radiative forcing
• Greenhouse gas and other metrics, including Global Warming Potential (GWP)
and Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP)
Frequently Asked Questions Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models
Executive Summary
• The hierarchy of climate models: from global to regional
• Downscaling methods
• Assessing model performance, including quantitative measures and their use
• New model components and couplings
• Representation of processes and feedbacks in climate models
• Simulation of recent and longer term records
• Simulation of regional patterns, variability and extremes
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional
Executive Summary
• Evaluation of methodologies
• Atmospheric and surface changes
• Changes in ocean properties
• Cryosphere changes
• Extreme events
• Pre-instrumental perspective
• Implications of attribution for projections
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 11: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
Executive Summary
• Predictability of interannual to decadal climate variations and change
• Projections for the next few decades
• Regional climate change, variability and extremes
• Atmospheric composition and air quality
• Possible effects of geoengineering
• Quantification of the range of climate change projections
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
Executive Summary
• Scenario description
• Projections for the 21st century
• Projections beyond the 21st century
• Regional climate change, variability and extremes
• Forcing, response and climate sensitivity
• Climate change commitment and inertia
• Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system
• Quantification of the range of climate change projections
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 13: Sea Level Change
Executive Summary
• Synthesis of past sea level change and its components
• Models for sea level change
• Projections of globally averaged sea level rise
• Projections of the regional distribution of sea level change
• Extreme sea level events
• Potential ice sheet instability and its implications
• Multi-century projections Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 14: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change
Executive Summary
• Patterns of variability: observations, understanding and projections
• Monsoon systems: observations, understanding and projections
• Extremes: observations, understanding and projections
• Interconnections among phenomena
Frequently Asked Questions
Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
Annex II: Glossary
Annex III: Acronyms and Regional Abbreviations
Annex IV: List of Authors
Annex V: List of Reviewers

 

[skookerasbil]

I would like to see ANY evidence that the IPCC is doing considering ignoring the hiatus. I think that's complete bullshit.

Here is the official outline for Fifth Analysis Report, Working Group I (Physical Basis). Let me know how one uses this outline but ignores the temperature trends of the last 15 years:

AGREED REFERENCE MATERIAL FOR THE
IPCC FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
• Working Group I outline

Chapter 1: Introduction
Executive Summary
• Rationale and key concepts of the WG1 contribution
• Treatment of uncertainty
• Climate change projections since FAR
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
Executive Summary
• Changes in surface temperature and soil temperature
• Changes in temperature, humidity and clouds
• Changes in atmospheric composition
• Changes in radiation fields and energy budget
• Changes in hydrology, runoff, precipitation and drought
• Changes in atmospheric circulation, including wind
• Spatial and temporal patterns of climate variability
• Changes in extreme events, including tropical and extratropical storms
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean
Executive Summary
• Changes in ocean temperature and heat content
• Ocean salinity change and freshwater fluxes
• Sea level change, ocean waves and storm surges
• Ocean biogeochemical changes, including ocean acidification
• Changes in ocean surface processes
• Changes in ocean circulation
• Spatial and temporal patterns of ocean variability
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere
Executive Summary
• Changes in ice sheets, including mass balance
• Changes in ice shelves
• Changes in glaciers and ice caps
• Sea ice variability and trends
• Snow and ice cover variability and trends
• Changes in frozen ground
• Dynamics of ice sheets, ice shelves, ice caps, glaciers and sea ice
Frequently Asked Questions Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives
Executive Summary
• Characteristics of early instrumental, documentary and natural climate archives
• Reconstruction of radiative forcing and climate response
• Reconstruction of regional variability and extremes
• Abrupt climate changes and their regional expression
• Sea level and ice sheets: patterns, amplitudes and rates of change
• Paleoclimate perspective on irreversibility in the climate system
• Paleodata-model intercomparisons
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles
Executive Summary
• Past changes in CO2, CH4, N2O and biogeochemical cycles
• Recent trends in global and regional sources, sinks and inventories, including
land use change
• Processes and understanding of changes, including ocean acidification
• Interactions between the carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, including the
nitrogen cycle
• Projections of changes in carbon and other biogeochemical cycles
• Greenhouse gas stabilisation
• Carbon cycle – climate feedbacks and irreversibility
• Geoengineering involving the carbon cycle
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols
Executive Summary
• Observations of clouds and their representation in models
• Coupling of clouds, water vapour, precipitation and the large-scale circulation
• Cloud and water vapour feedbacks and their effects on climate sensitivity
• Observations of aerosols and their representation in models
• Aerosol types including black carbon: chemistry, sources, sinks and distribution
• Direct and indirect aerosol forcing and effects, including contrails and cosmic rays
• Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions
• Geoengineering involving clouds and aerosols
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing
Executive Summary
• Natural radiative forcing changes: solar and volcanic
• Anthropogenic radiative forcing, including effects from land surface changes
• Effects of atmospheric chemistry and composition
• Spatial and temporal expression of radiative forcing
• Greenhouse gas and other metrics, including Global Warming Potential (GWP)
and Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP)
Frequently Asked Questions Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models
Executive Summary
• The hierarchy of climate models: from global to regional
• Downscaling methods
• Assessing model performance, including quantitative measures and their use
• New model components and couplings
• Representation of processes and feedbacks in climate models
• Simulation of recent and longer term records
• Simulation of regional patterns, variability and extremes
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional
Executive Summary
• Evaluation of methodologies
• Atmospheric and surface changes
• Changes in ocean properties
• Cryosphere changes
• Extreme events
• Pre-instrumental perspective
• Implications of attribution for projections
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 11: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
Executive Summary
• Predictability of interannual to decadal climate variations and change
• Projections for the next few decades
• Regional climate change, variability and extremes
• Atmospheric composition and air quality
• Possible effects of geoengineering
• Quantification of the range of climate change projections
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
Executive Summary
• Scenario description
• Projections for the 21st century
• Projections beyond the 21st century
• Regional climate change, variability and extremes
• Forcing, response and climate sensitivity
• Climate change commitment and inertia
• Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system
• Quantification of the range of climate change projections
Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 13: Sea Level Change
Executive Summary
• Synthesis of past sea level change and its components
• Models for sea level change
• Projections of globally averaged sea level rise
• Projections of the regional distribution of sea level change
• Extreme sea level events
• Potential ice sheet instability and its implications
• Multi-century projections Frequently Asked Questions
Chapter 14: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change
Executive Summary
• Patterns of variability: observations, understanding and projections
• Monsoon systems: observations, understanding and projections
• Extremes: observations, understanding and projections
• Interconnections among phenomena
Frequently Asked Questions
Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
Annex II: Glossary
Annex III: Acronyms and Regional Abbreviations
Annex IV: List of Authors
Annex V: List of Reviewers

LOL.......its called nature s0n. All that shit works now, 500 years ago. 2,500 years ago. That's the brilliance of the whole ruse......it morphs at any moment. Just like nature. Only the hopelessly duped of the world cant connect the dots.

 

[Abraham3]

I'm wondering, Dave, why you would go to Die Welt to read an article about a story published by Bloomberg. Why not go directly to Bloomberg to see what they've got? Here's one:

UN Leak Shows More Evidence Humans Cause Global Warming - Bloomberg

OR this analysis from the Mail, the first paper to publish on Rawls' leaked documents.

Driving forces

The Mail piece quotes Alistair Doyle's take on what's driving the slowdown:

"Scientists believe causes could include: greater-than-expected quantities of ash from volcanoes, which dims sunlight; a decline in heat from the sun during a current 11-year solar cycle; more heat being absorbed by the deep oceans; or the possibility that the climate may be less sensitive than expected to a build-up of carbon dioxide".

It remains to be seen exactly what the new report will say about how sensitive the climate is to carbon dioxide when it's released next month - although the New York Times suggests the lower range of the estimate could have come down a little since the last report.

But scientists don't generally talk about climate sensitivity in the context of what's driving the surface warming slowdown. The scientists we've spoken to tell us the most likely reason temperature rise has slowed is that heat is entering the oceans rather than staying in the atmosphere, which would make the slowdown we're seeing a temporary thing.

Still, ongoing discussions among scientists allows the Mail to ask provocatively in a headline: "Why has global warming slowed? Scientists admit they don't know why". And the BBC takes a similar line, characterising recent temperatures as "a controversial slowdown that scientists have been struggling to explain."

National Geographic and the New York Times take the time to explain that scientists are pretty confident the slowdown is likely down to "short term factors", which won't significantly impact the amount of warming we can expect in the long term.

 

[daveman]

I would like to see ANY evidence that the IPCC is doing considering ignoring the hiatus. I think that's complete bullshit.

I don't care what you think -- always assuming you do think, of course.

 

[daveman]

I'm wondering, Dave, why you would go to Die Welt to read an article about a story published by Bloomberg. Why not go directly to Bloomberg to see what they've got?

Ummm...you're kidding, right? What I posted was a climate journalist's commentary about the upcoming report.

 

[edthecynic]

How could warming have stopped 15 years ago if the decade ending 2012 was the warmest decade in the history of direct instrument measurement?

 

[daveman]

How could warming have stopped 15 years ago if the decade ending 2012 was the warmest decade in the history of direct instrument measurement?

Because it didn't stop, obviously.

 

[edthecynic]

How could warming have stopped 15 years ago if the decade ending 2012 was the warmest decade in the history of direct instrument measurement?

Because it didn't stop, obviously.

Obviously!

But YOUR own OP says there is a 15 year pause in global warming!!!

Deniers are trying to pass off a slow down in the acceleration of the warming as a stop in the warming. Some deniers have gone as far as calling the slow down in warming, "cooling."

 

[daveman]

How could warming have stopped 15 years ago if the decade ending 2012 was the warmest decade in the history of direct instrument measurement?

Because it didn't stop, obviously.

Obviously!

But YOUR own OP says there is a 15 year pause in global warming!!!

Deniers are trying to pass off a slow down in the acceleration of the warming as a stop in the warming. Some deniers have gone as far as calling the slow down in warming, "cooling."

Sorry; I made a mistake. Warming has indeed stopped.

 

[Abraham3]

Sorry, no, it hasn't.

 

[daveman]

Sorry, no, it hasn't.

You left out "amen".

Meanwhile, back in reality:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterfe...l-warming-alarmists-global-cooling-is-here/2/

Britain’s Met Office, an international cheerleading headquarters for global warming hysteria, did concede last December that there would be no further warming at least through 2017, which would make 20 years with no global warming. That reflects grudging recognition of the newly developing trends. But that reflects as well growing divergence between the reality of real world temperatures and the projections of the climate models at the foundation of the global warming alarmism of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since those models have never been validated, they are not science at this point, but just made up fantasies. That is why, “In the 12 years to 2011, 11 out of 12 [global temperature]forecasts [of the Met Office] were too high — and… none were colder than [resulted],” as BBC climate correspondent Paul Hudson wrote in January.

 

[edthecynic]

Sorry, no, it hasn't.

You left out "amen".

Meanwhile, back in reality:

To The Horror Of Global Warming Alarmists, Global Cooling Is Here - Forbes

Britain’s Met Office, an international cheerleading headquarters for global warming hysteria, did concede last December that there would be no further warming at least through 2017, which would make 20 years with no global warming. That reflects grudging recognition of the newly developing trends. But that reflects as well growing divergence between the reality of real world temperatures and the projections of the climate models at the foundation of the global warming alarmism of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since those models have never been validated, they are not science at this point, but just made up fantasies. That is why, “In the 12 years to 2011, 11 out of 12 [global temperature]forecasts [of the Met Office] were too high — and… none were colder than [resulted],” as BBC climate correspondent Paul Hudson wrote in January.

Forbes is hardly reality. The fact remains this last decade is the warmest decade in the history of direct instrument measurement. Warming more slowly is not warming has stopped.

 

[Abraham3]

Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods

Gerald A. Meehl, Julie M. Arblaster, John T. Fasullo, Aixue Hu & Kevin E. Trenberth


Nature Climate Change 1, 360–364 (2011) doi:10.1038/nclimate1229
Received 16 June 2011 Accepted 30 August 2011 Published online 18 September 2011

There have been decades, such as 2000–2009, when the observed globally averaged surface-temperature time series shows little increase or even a slightly negative trend1 (a hiatus period). However, the observed energy imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere for this recent decade indicates that a net energy flux into the climate system of about 1 W m−2 (refs 2, 3) should be producing warming somewhere in the system4, 5. Here we analyse twenty-first-century climate-model simulations that maintain a consistent radiative imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere of about 1 W m−2 as observed for the past decade. Eight decades with a slightly negative global mean surface-temperature trend show that the ocean above 300 m takes up significantly less heat whereas the ocean below 300 m takes up significantly more, compared with non-hiatus decades. The model provides a plausible depiction of processes in the climate system causing the hiatus periods, and indicates that a hiatus period is a relatively common climate phenomenon and may be linked to La Niña-like conditions.

 

[daveman]

Sorry, no, it hasn't.

You left out "amen".

Meanwhile, back in reality:

To The Horror Of Global Warming Alarmists, Global Cooling Is Here - Forbes

Britain’s Met Office, an international cheerleading headquarters for global warming hysteria, did concede last December that there would be no further warming at least through 2017, which would make 20 years with no global warming. That reflects grudging recognition of the newly developing trends. But that reflects as well growing divergence between the reality of real world temperatures and the projections of the climate models at the foundation of the global warming alarmism of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since those models have never been validated, they are not science at this point, but just made up fantasies. That is why, “In the 12 years to 2011, 11 out of 12 [global temperature]forecasts [of the Met Office] were too high — and… none were colder than [resulted],” as BBC climate correspondent Paul Hudson wrote in January.

Forbes is hardly reality. The fact remains this last decade is the warmest decade in the history of direct instrument measurement. Warming more slowly is not warming has stopped.

I dealt with your silly claim in the other thread.

 

[daveman]

Model-based evidence...

Dismissed.

 

[edthecynic]

You left out "amen".

Meanwhile, back in reality:

To The Horror Of Global Warming Alarmists, Global Cooling Is Here - Forbes

Forbes is hardly reality. The fact remains this last decade is the warmest decade in the history of direct instrument measurement. Warming more slowly is not warming has stopped.

I dealt with your silly claim in the other thread.

Yeah, you lied about finding nothing when you googled it, that's how you "dealt" with it.

 

[daveman]

Forbes is hardly reality. The fact remains this last decade is the warmest decade in the history of direct instrument measurement. Warming more slowly is not warming has stopped.

I dealt with your silly claim in the other thread.

Yeah, you lied about finding nothing when you googled it, that's how you "dealt" with it.

I don't know what to tell you. I Googled exactly what you said...and got nothin'.

But I gotta tell you, it IS funny getting lectured about lying by an AGW cultist.

 

[edthecynic]

I dealt with your silly claim in the other thread.

Yeah, you lied about finding nothing when you googled it, that's how you "dealt" with it.

I don't know what to tell you. I Googled exactly what you said...and got nothin'.

But I gotta tell you, it IS funny getting lectured about lying by an AGW cultist.

Obviously you need a lesson or two about google!

https://www.google.com/search?q="warmest decade"&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8