Paxton leads in all the betting sites. And they have proven far more reliable than leftwing polling. I'd say a 10-point advantage is a ROUT.
Ken Paxton is currently leading in the betting markets for the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race. After winning the Republican primary runoff, he remains a slight favorite in a highly competitive general election against Democratic state Representative James Talarico. [
1,
2]
Betting and prediction platforms currently price the race as follows:
- Polymarket: Gives the GOP a 54% chance of winning compared to Talarico’s 47%.
- Kalshi: Places Paxton's probability of winning the seat at roughly 55% to Talarico's 45%.
- BetOnline: Prices Paxton at -125 and Talarico at -105. [1, 2]
Seriously. Use a little common sense. A far-left eunuch winning in Texas??