Democrats outperformed in every special election this cycle

[McRocket]

'Democrats have outperformed in each special election since President Trump took office by an average of 8.5 points, according to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, which measures the partisan tilt of each district based on the two previous presidential elections.

Why it matters: That's a large enough margin for Democrats to take back the House, says Cook's Dave Wasserman. And by a lot — he says they'd need to outperform PVI by just 4-5 points to win in November.'

Democrats outperformed in every special election this cycle

Interesting.

Trumpbots? Commence spinning.


Once again, I am neither Dem nor Rep. But I do DESPISE Trump as POTUS.

 

[Toro]

In special elections for the House since Trump was elected, the Dems have swung the vote by 15% on average.

If that trend holds, then they will win the House in November as there were ~40 districts where the Republican won by 15 points or less.

 

[OODA_Loop]

Yep it is a lock for Democrats ask Hillary

 

[Missouri_Mike]

Yes the dems are out performing the shit out of second place. They’re the best second place team since Hillary! Yay

 

[whitehall]

Cooks report measures the "partisan tilt"? What the hell is that? In other words this little essay isn't based on facts but on some sort of "tilt" that is impossible to measure. Democrats must be desperate to rely on junk like this.

 

[shockedcanadian]

'Democrats have outperformed in each special election since President Trump took office by an average of 8.5 points, according to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, which measures the partisan tilt of each district based on the two previous presidential elections.

Why it matters: That's a large enough margin for Democrats to take back the House, says Cook's Dave Wasserman. And by a lot — he says they'd need to outperform PVI by just 4-5 points to win in November.'

Democrats outperformed in every special election this cycle

Interesting.

Trumpbots? Commence spinning.


Once again, I am neither Dem nor Rep. But I do DESPISE Trump as POTUS.

A few people on twitter posted that over 600 Democratic votes were cast in a district with 276 voters. Anyone else hear this, and/or can confirm? That would seem to be improper if true.

 

[Missouri_Mike]

'Democrats have outperformed in each special election since President Trump took office by an average of 8.5 points, according to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, which measures the partisan tilt of each district based on the two previous presidential elections.

Why it matters: That's a large enough margin for Democrats to take back the House, says Cook's Dave Wasserman. And by a lot — he says they'd need to outperform PVI by just 4-5 points to win in November.'

Democrats outperformed in every special election this cycle

Interesting.

Trumpbots? Commence spinning.


Once again, I am neither Dem nor Rep. But I do DESPISE Trump as POTUS.

A few people on twitter posted that over 600 Democratic votes were cast in a district with 276 voters. Anyone else hear this, and/or can confirm? That would seem to be improper if true.

It’s easy to calculate the democrat voter rolls. You just add the number of deceased to the number of weirdo’s you see on the streets and that’s how many votes they have.

 

[MisterBeale]

How Trump Won Re-election in 2020
A sneak peek at the Times’s news analysis from Nov. 4, 2020.
Opinion | How Trump Won Re-election in 2020
How Trump Lost Re-election in 2020
A sneak peek at The Times’s news analysis from Nov. 4, 2020.
Opinion | How Trump Lost Re-election in 2020

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

'Democrats have outperformed in each special election since President Trump took office by an average of 8.5 points, according to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, which measures the partisan tilt of each district based on the two previous presidential elections.

Why it matters: That's a large enough margin for Democrats to take back the House, says Cook's Dave Wasserman. And by a lot — he says they'd need to outperform PVI by just 4-5 points to win in November.'

Democrats outperformed in every special election this cycle

Interesting.

Trumpbots? Commence spinning.


Once again, I am neither Dem nor Rep. But I do DESPISE Trump as POTUS.

Spin what? The Democrats lost almost all of them. A win is a win whether it's by one point or ten. Granted, these elections were much closer than they probably should have been given the districts they were in and I do think the Republicans will have some trouble in the midterms, but so far the pattern we are seeing compared to the 2006 cycle is somewhat anemic. In 2006, the Democrats were winning all of these special elections even in the deep south. The Democrats will gain seats in the midterms, but as far as control of Congress goes, nothing is certain.

 

[Toro]

'Democrats have outperformed in each special election since President Trump took office by an average of 8.5 points, according to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, which measures the partisan tilt of each district based on the two previous presidential elections.

Why it matters: That's a large enough margin for Democrats to take back the House, says Cook's Dave Wasserman. And by a lot — he says they'd need to outperform PVI by just 4-5 points to win in November.'

Democrats outperformed in every special election this cycle

Interesting.

Trumpbots? Commence spinning.


Once again, I am neither Dem nor Rep. But I do DESPISE Trump as POTUS.

Spin what? The Democrats lost almost all of them. A win is a win whether it's by one point or ten. Granted, these elections were much closer than they probably should have been given the districts they were in and I do think the Republicans will have some trouble in the midterms, but so far the pattern we are seeing compared to the 2006 cycle is somewhat anemic. In 2006, the Democrats were winning all of these special elections even in the deep south. The Democrats will gain seats in the midterms, but as far as control of Congress goes, nothing is certain.

The Dems swung ~30 seats in 2006. That's very doable for the Dems in November.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

'Democrats have outperformed in each special election since President Trump took office by an average of 8.5 points, according to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, which measures the partisan tilt of each district based on the two previous presidential elections.

Why it matters: That's a large enough margin for Democrats to take back the House, says Cook's Dave Wasserman. And by a lot — he says they'd need to outperform PVI by just 4-5 points to win in November.'

Democrats outperformed in every special election this cycle

Interesting.

Trumpbots? Commence spinning.


Once again, I am neither Dem nor Rep. But I do DESPISE Trump as POTUS.

Spin what? The Democrats lost almost all of them. A win is a win whether it's by one point or ten. Granted, these elections were much closer than they probably should have been given the districts they were in and I do think the Republicans will have some trouble in the midterms, but so far the pattern we are seeing compared to the 2006 cycle is somewhat anemic. In 2006, the Democrats were winning all of these special elections even in the deep south. The Democrats will gain seats in the midterms, but as far as control of Congress goes, nothing is certain.

The Dems swung ~30 seats in 2006. That's very doable for the Dems in November.

Earlier this year I would have agreed with you. I'm not so sure now.

 

[MisterBeale]

 

[Preacher]

'Democrats have outperformed in each special election since President Trump took office by an average of 8.5 points, according to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, which measures the partisan tilt of each district based on the two previous presidential elections.

Why it matters: That's a large enough margin for Democrats to take back the House, says Cook's Dave Wasserman. And by a lot — he says they'd need to outperform PVI by just 4-5 points to win in November.'

Democrats outperformed in every special election this cycle

Interesting.

Trumpbots? Commence spinning.


Once again, I am neither Dem nor Rep. But I do DESPISE Trump as POTUS.

ANYONE realizes the map has changed since Trump was elected...hell it changed to elect him! Wisconsin,Michigan,Pennsylvania!

 

[Reasonable]

'Democrats have outperformed in each special election since President Trump took office by an average of 8.5 points, according to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, which measures the partisan tilt of each district based on the two previous presidential elections.

Why it matters: That's a large enough margin for Democrats to take back the House, says Cook's Dave Wasserman. And by a lot — he says they'd need to outperform PVI by just 4-5 points to win in November.'

Democrats outperformed in every special election this cycle

Interesting.

Trumpbots? Commence spinning.


Once again, I am neither Dem nor Rep. But I do DESPISE Trump as POTUS.

A few people on twitter posted that over 600 Democratic votes were cast in a district with 276 voters. Anyone else hear this, and/or can confirm? That would seem to be improper if true.

Wrong. It was in Georgia and it’s was the TOTAL votes.

 

[Reasonable]

'Democrats have outperformed in each special election since President Trump took office by an average of 8.5 points, according to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, which measures the partisan tilt of each district based on the two previous presidential elections.

Why it matters: That's a large enough margin for Democrats to take back the House, says Cook's Dave Wasserman. And by a lot — he says they'd need to outperform PVI by just 4-5 points to win in November.'

Democrats outperformed in every special election this cycle

Interesting.

Trumpbots? Commence spinning.


Once again, I am neither Dem nor Rep. But I do DESPISE Trump as POTUS.

 

[Mike473]

The Democrats have definitely been out performing in these special elections. Can they do it nationally in November? I have my doubts.

Here is a simple example. My friend went back to college recently. The first semester he took 2 classes and got an "A" in each class. The second, he overloaded to 6 classes and, while he still passed easily, he saw his grades slip to 5 at the B level and 1 A. He couldn't focus as intensely on a single class. He had to spread his attention to 6 classes.

The Dems have focused like a laser on these special elections and did a great job turning people out to vote. I give them a lot of credit. But, even a small decrease in effort will cause a lot of these races to drift out of reach. I suspect the R will win OH 12 by 5 points or more in November. There is no way the Dems can focus again on this district. And, they will need an even greater effort than last night to turn it blue.

I thought there was no chance that the Dems could win the House back. But, I give them a shot now. But, I still think the Republicans have the slight advantage going into the election based on the make up of the districts.

 

[Toro]

Earlier this year I would have agreed with you. I'm not so sure now.

I don't know what will happen. I just look at the numbers. The trends have been pretty consistent over the past 18 months, and I'm not sure what is going to change in the next 3.

 

[rightwinger]

'Democrats have outperformed in each special election since President Trump took office by an average of 8.5 points, according to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, which measures the partisan tilt of each district based on the two previous presidential elections.

Why it matters: That's a large enough margin for Democrats to take back the House, says Cook's Dave Wasserman. And by a lot — he says they'd need to outperform PVI by just 4-5 points to win in November.'

Democrats outperformed in every special election this cycle

Interesting.

Trumpbots? Commence spinning.


Once again, I am neither Dem nor Rep. But I do DESPISE Trump as POTUS.

Let’s hope Dems can have a high turnout in November
Especially among women

 

[rightwinger]

The Democrats have definitely been out performing in these special elections. Can they do it nationally in November? I have my doubts.

Here is a simple example. My friend went back to college recently. The first semester he took 2 classes and got an "A" in each class. The second, he overloaded to 6 classes and, while he still passed easily, he saw his grades slip to 5 at the B level and 1 A. He couldn't focus as intensely on a single class. He had to spread his attention to 6 classes.

The Dems have focused like a laser on these special elections and did a great job turning people out to vote. I give them a lot of credit. But, even a small decrease in effort will cause a lot of these races to drift out of reach. I suspect the R will win OH 12 by 5 points or more in November. There is no way the Dems can focus again on this district. And, they will need an even greater effort than last night to turn it blue.

I thought there was no chance that the Dems could win the House back. But, I give them a shot now. But, I still think the Republicans have the slight advantage going into the election based on the make up of the districts.

It was Republicans who focused on Ohio and they still barel squeaked by in a solid red District

 

[ptbw forever]

Earlier this year I would have agreed with you. I'm not so sure now.

I don't know what will happen. I just look at the numbers. The trends have been pretty consistent over the past 18 months, and I'm not sure what is going to change in the next 3.

The fact that there is an actual election?

It is a lot easier to vote in November than in Spring or Summer.