It's not Biden's choosing.
It's your stupid MAGArats in Congress
Yesterday’s
market plunge seemed to suggest that investors, after months of ignoring the fight over raising the debt ceiling, were suddenly taking the once-unthinkable possibility of a U.S. debt default seriously. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen
warned lawmakers at a Senate hearing of “catastrophic” consequences if they failed to suspend or raise the debt limit before the government hit it, which the Treasury estimated could come as soon as Oct. 18.
This isn’t the first time the government has flirted with the debt ceiling, an artificially imposed borrowing limit that Congress used to raise routinely, but that in recent years has become
a partisan cudgel. Nor is it the most immediate economic threat coming out of Washington. A government shutdown, which could happen as early as Friday, would furlough federal workers and disrupt other government services.
But a potential government debt default is what particularly worries market watchers. Here are two of the main scenarios being discussed on Wall Street as the debt ceiling closes in.
The “short-term panic” scenario. A brush with a ceiling-induced default in 2011, the first in a while, riled markets and led many to predict that the U.S.’s ability to borrow would be permanently affected: Standard & Poor’s downgraded the country’s credit rating for the first time in 70 years. (A decade later, interest rates are lower than ever.) Similarly, in 2013, during another debt-ceiling standoff, short-term government borrowing rates shot up, but quickly fell back to where they were before once the debt ceiling was raised. In both cases, the broader economy — jobs, house prices and the like — over time brushed off the temporarily higher borrowing costs.
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Yellen’s “catastrophic” scenario. A prolonged standoff could result in something a lot worse than what happened in 2011 or 2013. The main problem: Treasuries are widely used as collateral to back up short-term loans. If the U.S. defaults on some of its bonds, lenders may be unwilling to accept those tainted securities as collateral. Worse, Wall Street’s trading systems have not really been set up to sort defaulted Treasuries from the rest, because few thought a U.S. default was possible. This could lead to a short-term lending market that grinds to a halt, like at the beginning of the financial crisis.
Investors appear to have regained a measure of confidence today, with
stock futures up and bond yields falling. It could be a sign that investors are betting on the first scenario — yet another episode of debt-ceiling brinkmanship that is eventually resolved before things tip over the edge. What do you think? Let us know at
dealbook@nytimes.com. Include your name and location and we may feature your response in a future newsletter.