1. My link was to show you that Trump's tariffs generate significant new revenue, which could account for the reduction of the deficit as the OP noted. At the time the article was written Trump had a 145% tariff on China, and China had a 125% tariff on the US, those tariffs have since been lowered to 30% and 20%.
2. The bullet points you referenced are under various tariff scenarios which have not been finalized yet. I disagree with the dire predictions. For example, Trump has $10T in commitments for new US manufacturing plants. There may be fewer dock workers importing goods, but more workers in US manufacturing exporting goods.
3. Your 2nd bullet is based on presumed "retaliation". If the trade agreements with Britain and China are any indication, there will be more balanced trade without retaliation.