For months, opinion polls indicated that Britons would vote on June 23 to remain within the 28-nation union. But recent polls have shown a lead for the “leave” camp, including one that puts it five percentage points ahead. “Brexit,” as Britain’s potential exit from the European Union is known, would be a big deal. It could batter global markets, weigh on economic growth, alter the balance of power in Europe, and affect the United States’ relations with the Continent. President Obama took it upon himself to urge Britain to stay within the union. Just as it would be a mistake to read much into a few polls, the recent move toward Brexit should not be dismissed out of hand.
First off, the polls may be more accurate than their critics give them credit for. Britain’s pollsters came in for derision after the country’s general election just over a year ago. Polls before that vote overwhelmingly forecast a too-close-to-call race between the Conservative Party and the Labour Party. After a solid Conservative victory, an independent commission found that the 2015 polls were probably the most inaccurate since polling began in 1945. The main cause, said the commission, was that the polls used samples of people that underrepresented Conservative voters, people who now are more likely to favor leaving the European Union. The polling companies have attempted to fix such flaws, and they performed quite well in recent contests, including the vote for London’s mayor.
True, the betting markets are predicting that there is a 72 percent chance that Britain will vote to stay in. But bettors seem less sure after the recent polls. Even though the markets also failed to predict the Conservative victory last year, there are good reasons to think that the betting markets have the Brexit decision right. Polls take a snapshot of what a sample of people think at one time. Bettors can look at the polls and also take into account other factors that can influence an election, like the strength of a campaign and the future of the economy. Sometimes, just one issue can have a big influence on an election. Immigration may turn out to be that issue for the Brexit vote.
The “leave” campaign’s recent surge in the polls appears to have been prompted by the release of new numbers on net migration into Britain. The latest figures showed a net inflow of 333,000 people in 2015. The numbers had been riding high for months, so it was hardly a surprise. But those in favor of leaving have brandished the figure to try to damage the standing of Britain’s prime minister, David Cameron, who wants Britain to remain in the European Union. His opponents pointed out that he had said he was aiming for migration numbers that were far lower.
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