- Dec 8, 2014
- Reaction score
So, that last posting was from Monday, and now, the Saturday thereafter, there's another (near) doubling of the fatality count, to 18,544. The prediction for today was 19,200. It actually took five days to get there, and for the first time, the count dropped below the projection (by about 650 deaths). So, that's good news, as the exponential growth pattern (doubling every four days) appears to be broken.As of April 5, the fatality count stands at 9,534 - and this time it actually took four days for the (near) doubling. The quadrupling took seven days, and thus the count is still one day ahead of my projection. Also, the new infection count for the day dropped, precipitously, from 33k to below 27k, which is good news. Hope the trend holds, and developing hotspots have been caught early so as to contain them.That was from March 29.The death toll this hour stands at 2,400. [...] Currently, the infection count doubles about every three days. Let's hope social distancing works and the count slows down and doubles every four days for the next weeks. With some time lag, the death rate follows, all else equal, without some miraculous breakthrough in treatment, that same trajectory.
So, given the trajectory we get to
4,800 in 4 days
9,600 in 8 days
19,200 in 12 days
38,400 in 16 days
76,800 in 20 days
In 24 days, the count will be above 100k.
As of April 1, the fatality count stands at 4,745 - except it took just three days for the (near) doubling, not the four I had hoped it would be. So, while the count of new (confirmed) infections still rises, the day-to-day percentage rise is way down from 40+% to around 15%, which is good news.
All the while the death rate (fatalities / confirmed cases) rose to 2.86% - more than double the rate at the opening of this thread. To me that suggests that testing falls further behind the spread of the virus.
As the death count grows substantially faster than the infected count, the death rate still increases, from 2.86% five days ago to 3.76% as of now. That, again, indicates that testing still falls farther behind the spread of the virus.