Current COVID-19 Mortality Rate: 1.35%

Olde Europe

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The death toll this hour stands at 2,400. [...] Currently, the infection count doubles about every three days. Let's hope social distancing works and the count slows down and doubles every four days for the next weeks. With some time lag, the death rate follows, all else equal, without some miraculous breakthrough in treatment, that same trajectory.

So, given the trajectory we get to

4,800 in 4 days
9,600 in 8 days
19,200 in 12 days
38,400 in 16 days
76,800 in 20 days
In 24 days, the count will be above 100k.
That was from March 29.

As of April 1, the fatality count stands at 4,745 - except it took just three days for the (near) doubling, not the four I had hoped it would be. So, while the count of new (confirmed) infections still rises, the day-to-day percentage rise is way down from 40+% to around 15%, which is good news.
As of April 5, the fatality count stands at 9,534 - and this time it actually took four days for the (near) doubling. The quadrupling took seven days, and thus the count is still one day ahead of my projection. Also, the new infection count for the day dropped, precipitously, from 33k to below 27k, which is good news. Hope the trend holds, and developing hotspots have been caught early so as to contain them.

All the while the death rate (fatalities / confirmed cases) rose to 2.86% - more than double the rate at the opening of this thread. To me that suggests that testing falls further behind the spread of the virus.
So, that last posting was from Monday, and now, the Saturday thereafter, there's another (near) doubling of the fatality count, to 18,544. The prediction for today was 19,200. It actually took five days to get there, and for the first time, the count dropped below the projection (by about 650 deaths). So, that's good news, as the exponential growth pattern (doubling every four days) appears to be broken.

As the death count grows substantially faster than the infected count, the death rate still increases, from 2.86% five days ago to 3.76% as of now. That, again, indicates that testing still falls farther behind the spread of the virus.
 

Death Angel

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Total deaths/Total cases = 1.35% mortality rate in the US.

This is from the CDC site TODAY:



Since we're pretty much refusing to test anyone unless they're so seriously ill that they need immediate medical care, those numbers are skewed. We should wait on all these numbers. We haven't done enough testing to have a clue.
Yes, but they're skewed in a GOOD way. That mortality rate can only go WAY DOWN as we test.
 

Olde Europe

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The death toll this hour stands at 2,400. [...] Currently, the infection count doubles about every three days. Let's hope social distancing works and the count slows down and doubles every four days for the next weeks. With some time lag, the death rate follows, all else equal, without some miraculous breakthrough in treatment, that same trajectory.

So, given the trajectory we get to

4,800 in 4 days
9,600 in 8 days
19,200 in 12 days
38,400 in 16 days
76,800 in 20 days
In 24 days, the count will be above 100k.
That was from March 29.

As of April 1, the fatality count stands at 4,745 - except it took just three days for the (near) doubling, not the four I had hoped it would be. So, while the count of new (confirmed) infections still rises, the day-to-day percentage rise is way down from 40+% to around 15%, which is good news.
As of April 5, the fatality count stands at 9,534 - and this time it actually took four days for the (near) doubling. The quadrupling took seven days, and thus the count is still one day ahead of my projection. Also, the new infection count for the day dropped, precipitously, from 33k to below 27k, which is good news. Hope the trend holds, and developing hotspots have been caught early so as to contain them.

All the while the death rate (fatalities / confirmed cases) rose to 2.86% - more than double the rate at the opening of this thread. To me that suggests that testing falls further behind the spread of the virus.
So, that last posting was from Monday, and now, the Saturday thereafter, there's another (near) doubling of the fatality count, to 18,544. The prediction for today was 19,200. It actually took five days to get there, and for the first time, the count dropped below the projection (by about 650 deaths). So, that's good news, as the exponential growth pattern (doubling every four days) appears to be broken.

As the death count grows substantially faster than the infected count, the death rate still increases, from 2.86% five days ago to 3.76% as of now. That, again, indicates that testing still falls farther behind the spread of the virus.

As of today, the death count about doubled again, to something like 39,000. That took eight days, double the time it took to double the numbers just two weeks earlier. Had social distancing / stay at home not instated, had the country remained on the path of doubling every four days, we'd be at 76k deaths right now, double today's count. So, it works, albeit in a still somewhat limited fashion. Reportedly, while overall the rise of infections and deaths slows considerably, it seems to be ramping up among "essential workers", those tasked with keeping the country's essential services and production going, with individual workplaces with obviously insufficient distancing / other protections emerging as hotspots. I can't even begin to fathom what these guys are thinking, letting workers work elbow-to-elbow, thereby creating a petri dish for the virus to spread. Folks should go to jail for that.

Also, the death rate (fatalities / confirmed infected) ramped up to about 5% (from 1.35%) - as ever indicating that testing falls farther behind the spread. Still. That's catastrophic not just from the point of view of preventing further spread, it's also the main obstacle to re-opening the country for business. That's entirely Trump's fault - not using the Defense Production Act to fix the testing issues, mainly shortages of rapid testing kits along with the shortages of swabs and reagents - and he is therefore shooting himself into his own foot on a daily basis. Obviously, under these circumstances the economy will not start off like a rocket, as he boisterously envisioned. Everyone with a lick of sense knew the Orange dunce is in over his head, and would be overwhelmed and outmatched upon meeting the first real crisis not of his own making. Little did we know that Puerto Rico would just provide a first, though devastating, prelude for what we get to observe now.

This thing started out with 2,400 deaths on March 29. 20 days later, the fatalities count stands at 16 times that. That's how fast this beast is moving, and that's while Americans slowed it down considerably.

Let's hope I never need to revisit this thread again, with the next doubling pushed off indefinitely.
 

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