The Good:
You're think nothing good can come out of this, but think again. Remember your Mon saying, now wash your hands before coming to the table, cover your mouth when you cough, and keep your distance from those sick kids at school. And you said ok and ran some water over your hand before you ate, cough into your elbow or handkerchief when someone was watching, and paid absolutely no attention to avoiding your sick friends. Today tens of millions are now following Mom's advice. Healthcare officials believe these common sense disease avoidance measures will stick with many millions of people long after the pandemic is over. That can mean a healthier nation and less healthcare costs.
Today, I noticed the little Italian restaurant in our neighborhood closed for good and the folks at my gym said they don't think they're going to be able to make it with the Covid-19 restrictions. A number of major retailers have announced that many of their stores will not be reopening. This is of course bad news for owners and employees but over the long haul, it's actually good for the economy to shakeout weak and marginal businesses. Employees of these businesses who should have left long ago for better jobs held on, but will now be forced to find better jobs and most do.
Lastly, the country will emergence out of this epidermic much better prepared to deal with the next epidemic and make no mistake there will be another one. Many of the changes being made in hospitals and local and state health departments to deal with the epidemic, will remain. At the federal level, stockpiles of essential supplies are not likely to be allowed to go un-replenished. Businesses and governments will have plans to deal with the next epidemic using their experience gained with Covid-19. And no president in the future, is going to be downplaying a growing pandemic.
The Bad:
The bad is pretty obvious. A 2nd wave of the virus is very likely as the number of new cases and deaths increase with the opening of the economy and the protests. University of Washington is now predicting the second wave should hit about the middle of September when the country is nearly fully open and the seasonality of the virus begins to kick in.
The vaccine trials that Trump has been touting almost daily will not be available to the public in January. If all goes well, which it usually doesn't during drug trials, it may be available by the end of the 1st quarter. However even with strong goverment pressure and unlimited federal dollars, manufacturing, delivery, and the logistics of vaccinating hundreds of millions of people make it very unlikely that we will have enough immunity from the vaccine to stop the spread of the virus till at least the end of next year. So if we keep the cases down to the current levels of about 1,000 deaths a day which means no 2nd wave in the fall and no further increases in infection rate, we will be looking at 600,000 to 750,000 dead in the US due to Covid19 by the end of next year.
The Ugly:
If there is a second wave which now seems very likely, many states will attempt to start shutting business doors and clamping down on most of the activities that we are just starting to enjoy again. The BLM protests will be small potatoes compared the protests from people who just started to recover financially only to see their livelihood jerked away. For states that haven't gone to mail in ballots or made some other provisions, the election will be a chaotic. Both republicans and democrats will be blaming the opposition for the response to covid-19, the protests, and rioting. I expect this will be one of dirtiest and most violent election season in our history.
You're think nothing good can come out of this, but think again. Remember your Mon saying, now wash your hands before coming to the table, cover your mouth when you cough, and keep your distance from those sick kids at school. And you said ok and ran some water over your hand before you ate, cough into your elbow or handkerchief when someone was watching, and paid absolutely no attention to avoiding your sick friends. Today tens of millions are now following Mom's advice. Healthcare officials believe these common sense disease avoidance measures will stick with many millions of people long after the pandemic is over. That can mean a healthier nation and less healthcare costs.
Today, I noticed the little Italian restaurant in our neighborhood closed for good and the folks at my gym said they don't think they're going to be able to make it with the Covid-19 restrictions. A number of major retailers have announced that many of their stores will not be reopening. This is of course bad news for owners and employees but over the long haul, it's actually good for the economy to shakeout weak and marginal businesses. Employees of these businesses who should have left long ago for better jobs held on, but will now be forced to find better jobs and most do.
Lastly, the country will emergence out of this epidermic much better prepared to deal with the next epidemic and make no mistake there will be another one. Many of the changes being made in hospitals and local and state health departments to deal with the epidemic, will remain. At the federal level, stockpiles of essential supplies are not likely to be allowed to go un-replenished. Businesses and governments will have plans to deal with the next epidemic using their experience gained with Covid-19. And no president in the future, is going to be downplaying a growing pandemic.
The Bad:
The bad is pretty obvious. A 2nd wave of the virus is very likely as the number of new cases and deaths increase with the opening of the economy and the protests. University of Washington is now predicting the second wave should hit about the middle of September when the country is nearly fully open and the seasonality of the virus begins to kick in.
The vaccine trials that Trump has been touting almost daily will not be available to the public in January. If all goes well, which it usually doesn't during drug trials, it may be available by the end of the 1st quarter. However even with strong goverment pressure and unlimited federal dollars, manufacturing, delivery, and the logistics of vaccinating hundreds of millions of people make it very unlikely that we will have enough immunity from the vaccine to stop the spread of the virus till at least the end of next year. So if we keep the cases down to the current levels of about 1,000 deaths a day which means no 2nd wave in the fall and no further increases in infection rate, we will be looking at 600,000 to 750,000 dead in the US due to Covid19 by the end of next year.
The Ugly:
If there is a second wave which now seems very likely, many states will attempt to start shutting business doors and clamping down on most of the activities that we are just starting to enjoy again. The BLM protests will be small potatoes compared the protests from people who just started to recover financially only to see their livelihood jerked away. For states that haven't gone to mail in ballots or made some other provisions, the election will be a chaotic. Both republicans and democrats will be blaming the opposition for the response to covid-19, the protests, and rioting. I expect this will be one of dirtiest and most violent election season in our history.
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