Meanwhile, another key demographic variable – the number of children the average African woman is likely to have in her lifetime, or total fertility rate – remains elevated compared to
global rates.
The total fertility rate of Africa is 88% higher than the world standard (2.5 children per woman globally, 4.7 children per woman in Africa).
In Niger, where GDP per capita is less than $1 per day, the average number of children a woman is likely to have in her life is more than seven.
This is the Republicans wet dream. Pay us $1 a day and have us make 7 babies so we flood the market with more low wage workers.
Precipitous declines in fertility in Asia and Latin America, from five children per woman in the 1970s to around 2.5 today, led many to believe
Africa would follow a similar course.
Strong national family planning programmes in various parts of the world jump-started a virtuous circle: fertility declines allowed more educational and other resources to be deployed per capita than otherwise would have been possible. In turn, relatively more educated girls and women were able to increase their economic value and societal status – allowing for even greater agency to access and use contraception.
Unfortunately, since the early 1990s, family planning programmes in Africa
have not had the same attention, resulting in slow, sometimes negligible, fertility declines.
This means we are trying to get Africans to have less kids. And based on this story, I don't think it's Africa who has it right and the rest of us doing it wrong.
Rapid population growth helps overstrain educational systems and local economies and can be a challenge to any government. Many areas of Australia and England, both fast-growing countries, are contending with
overcrowded schools,
congested highways and stratospheric
housing costs. The reality is that as the size of any populace expands, governments must
construct infrastructure apace.
Failure to do so results in per capita declines in living standards. In already economically strained nations, physical goods such as roads, bridges, water supplies, sewers and electricity systems are crucial, but scaling-up educational, public health and security systems are also required. Unemployment, instability and entrenched poverty follow suit. Uneducated girls and women are less likely to overcome social barriers to contraceptive use, such as domineering paternalistic cultures or religious prohibition. Fertility remains high and human suffering builds steam.
A few heroic efforts, such as
Family Planning 2020, are attempting to stimulate family planning programmes across the continent, and there are some signs of success. Recent figures from Kenya and Zambia show substantial strengthening of contraceptive use among married women. In Kenya, 58% of married women now use modern contraception, and in Zambia this measure has risen from 33% to 45% in the last three years.
In both cases, the catalysts for improvements were government commitment and commensurate budget financing. The virtuous circle may not be completely out of reach, but many more African governments must make haste and make substantial
investments in contraceptive information and access for their people.