It is an established fact that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions have led to an increased frequency and/or intensity of some weather and climate extremes since pre-industrial time, in particular for temperature extremes. Evidence of observed changes in extremes and their attribution to human influence (including greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and landuse changes) has strengthened since AR5, in particular for extreme precipitation, droughts, tropical cyclones and compound extremes (including dry/hot events and fire weather). Some recent hot extreme events would have been extremely unlikely to occur without human influence on the climate system. Regional changes in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes generally scale with global warming. New evidence strengthens the conclusion from the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5) that even relatively small incremental increases in global warming (+0.5°C) cause statistically significant changes in extremes on the global scale and for large regions (high confidence). In particular, this is the case for temperature extremes (very likely), the intensification of heavy precipitation (high confidence) including that associated with tropical cyclones (medium confidence), and the worsening of droughts in some regions (high confidence). The occurrence of extreme events unprecedented in the observed record will rise with increasing global warming, even at 1.5°C of global warming. Projected percentage changes in frequency are higher for the rarer extreme events (high confidence).
AR6, Technical Summary, Executive Summary, Ch 11: "Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate"
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