Ron Paul did great. I have a feeling he might take Iowa, of course there is time for things to change before then.
When everyone on stage is trying to act tuff by being pro war in every case possible one person stands out, Paul. There are shit loads of Republicans that don't want more war and would like to see the wars we have going on now end, Ron Paul take all of them. The other 3-4 players can split the pro war crowd.
In the end I think it will be about what is bigger, the Pro war crowd or the Anti pointless wars crowd.