This is truly interesting:
CNN announces details of Republican presidential debate - CNNPolitics.com
The Sept. 16, 2015 event will be divided into two parts featuring two groups of candidates. One grouping will feature the top 10 candidates according to public polling, and the other will include candidates who meet the minimum threshold of 1 percent in public polling but are ranked outside the top 10...
FYI
Wow. Well, you have to do
something, that's for sure.
No doubt it will be a real insult to those stuck on the JV team, but there are only so many options here.
I saw one report that said that, if this type of system were used today, Jindal wouldn't make the varsity and Trump would.
Holy crap.
.
If you look at current polling, it could end up that less than 10 make it into the first group, because even now, with a group of 9 or 10, one of or two of them are already at only 1%.
And one thing that CNN did NOT specify is which polling it it going to rely on.
What if Fiorina is polling at 1% in 5 polls, but at 4% in one poll? What does CNN do then?
Right now, with polling focused on Bush (Jeb), Christie (less and less), Paul, Cruz, Rubio, Walker, Huckabee, Carson, Fiorina and soon, also on Kasich, Graham, Jindal, Trump, Perry and Santorum, the highest any candidate has gotten in national polling has been 18% and the mean is about 14% for the top dog(s). Multiply that out by 6 and there is not much left for the lower tier candidates.
Actually, although I am not clocking the GOP nomination polling like I do the Hillary vs. GOP matchups, this is pretty much playing out as I thought it would, with no front runner and a lot less stability than in 2010-2011, where Romney was holding at a steady 23% pretty much all the way.
I am seeing a very strong possibility, with such an enormous field, that no candidate will get to 50% +1 delegate in the nomination math before the convention. I am seeing a very strong possibility that Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada will all go for four different candidates.