China's One Child Policy Will Come to Roost Soon

[Baruch Menachem]

Taiwan is also having problems. Women there prefer a childless lifestyle.
but there is not the powder keg of a huge sexual imbalance there is on the mainland.

And China's problems with sex matters are being exported into North Korea, as women are fleeing there to be Chinese brides.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtuPlLvwurs"]The story from Taiwan[/ame]

 

[Baruch Menachem]

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZAaiVDvyAU&NR=1&feature=fvwp"]More of the same.[/ame]

 

[GHook93]

Taking care of an old person in the States is expensive, is it cheaper in the Far East? I couldn't take care of 1 of my parents now even if I wanted to.

Food, shelter and healthcare is expensive where-ever you live for the elderly! In countries like China where things cost less, but you also make less. Therefore, it's just as hard or even harder to care for the elderly in the Far East!

 

[HUGGY]

For the record, I think China had to do some draconian. Their population growth was well unsustainable and status quo would have been 10 fold worse than harmful effects of the one child policy! However, there are going to be some very NEGATIVE side effects to the one child policy that the China (and the world) will see over the next few decades.

The one kid policy started in 1979 so it effected Chinese parents in their 20s-30s. Fast forward to the future in 2011, 32 years since the policy was enacted (China has stated they are extending the policy and I am sure it will keep going to 2020) and hese parents are between 52 and 62.

The effects have not been felt yet for China. The parents effected by the one child policy haven't left the workforce yet and haven't started dying off yet. They will start leaving the work force over the next decade. Some will start dying off in the 2020s. Most will die off in the 2030s. Few will be left in the 2040s.

The Negative Effects:
First, the parents of the one child policy are still of working age, between 52 and 62. HOWEVER, over the next decade they will slowly but surly move past working age. By 2015 half will be over 60. By 2020 all will be over 60. Just as America is now facing the issue of too many baby boomers retiring, China will face it also. HOWEVER, China will be facing the issue of a 10x larger retirement population than working population. There will be numerous retirees for every one young worker! Healthcare is expensive! There will be a crisis. It could bankrupt China, esp if the US defaults on our loans and when China's economic growth stifles (which its almost assured to do). The burden on the young Chinese will be too over-welming and an impossible feat to overcome smoothly!

Second, even if China gets rid of the one child policy by 2020, the lack of women will be a huge issue. By 2020 that will be 4 decades of tiny females births (due to selective abortion and abandonment). I saw something that there is 1 young woman for every 5 young men! In Chinese terms, 100 million woman for 500 million men! Ouch! The land of a billion virgins is a scary thought. Take out the issue of so many life-long virgins, which will lead to civil unrest! The birth rate per capita for the next Chinese generation will be much much less than under even the one child policy. Women might have more children, but with only 4 out of 5 men having children the total birth rate will be low.

Third, the economic spiral down will be unavoidable. Free trade is becoming less popular and could come to a head. China's main economic advantage is that they have an enormous work force. Starting this decade more and more Chinese workers will be physically unable to keep up the strenous work load! Each and every year China's ginormous work force will get smaller and smaller. Their advantage will be less and less. Their economy will decline more and more.

Lastly, with China's population and economic declines the separatist movements will grow louder and louder and might even look attractive to a struggling country. Once China's economic growth becomes a full on issue, Tibet, Taiwan and the East Turkestan Muslim Separatist. China has the military, man power, money and economic growth to beat down all of these separatist movement at the same time effortlessly. However, when the burden of the one child parents retiring, need care and healthcare grows by 2020, the Chinese young population taken on too much burden and China's economy slipping into chaos, they might not have the might to fight these movement effectly. Even if they do, it's very expensive to fight separatist movements.


Bottom line: China's skyrocket to the top will come to a head over the next two decades. Eventually it will stabilize out, but the left's boner over how good China is doing is an illusion.

Looks like China has more faith in the USA than you do... At over a trillion in debt WE will be paying for Chinese old age.

 

[FifthColumn]

For the record, I think China had to do some draconian. Their population growth was well unsustainable and status quo would have been 10 fold worse than harmful effects of the one child policy! However, there are going to be some very NEGATIVE side effects to the one child policy that the China (and the world) will see over the next few decades.

The one kid policy started in 1979 so it effected Chinese parents in their 20s-30s. Fast forward to the future in 2011, 32 years since the policy was enacted (China has stated they are extending the policy and I am sure it will keep going to 2020) and hese parents are between 52 and 62.

The effects have not been felt yet for China. The parents effected by the one child policy haven't left the workforce yet and haven't started dying off yet. They will start leaving the work force over the next decade. Some will start dying off in the 2020s. Most will die off in the 2030s. Few will be left in the 2040s.

The Negative Effects:
First, the parents of the one child policy are still of working age, between 52 and 62. HOWEVER, over the next decade they will slowly but surly move past working age. By 2015 half will be over 60. By 2020 all will be over 60. Just as America is now facing the issue of too many baby boomers retiring, China will face it also. HOWEVER, China will be facing the issue of a 10x larger retirement population than working population. There will be numerous retirees for every one young worker! Healthcare is expensive! There will be a crisis. It could bankrupt China, esp if the US defaults on our loans and when China's economic growth stifles (which its almost assured to do). The burden on the young Chinese will be too over-welming and an impossible feat to overcome smoothly!

Second, even if China gets rid of the one child policy by 2020, the lack of women will be a huge issue. By 2020 that will be 4 decades of tiny females births (due to selective abortion and abandonment). I saw something that there is 1 young woman for every 5 young men! In Chinese terms, 100 million woman for 500 million men! Ouch! The land of a billion virgins is a scary thought. Take out the issue of so many life-long virgins, which will lead to civil unrest! The birth rate per capita for the next Chinese generation will be much much less than under even the one child policy. Women might have more children, but with only 4 out of 5 men having children the total birth rate will be low.

Third, the economic spiral down will be unavoidable. Free trade is becoming less popular and could come to a head. China's main economic advantage is that they have an enormous work force. Starting this decade more and more Chinese workers will be physically unable to keep up the strenous work load! Each and every year China's ginormous work force will get smaller and smaller. Their advantage will be less and less. Their economy will decline more and more.

Lastly, with China's population and economic declines the separatist movements will grow louder and louder and might even look attractive to a struggling country. Once China's economic growth becomes a full on issue, Tibet, Taiwan and the East Turkestan Muslim Separatist. China has the military, man power, money and economic growth to beat down all of these separatist movement at the same time effortlessly. However, when the burden of the one child parents retiring, need care and healthcare grows by 2020, the Chinese young population taken on too much burden and China's economy slipping into chaos, they might not have the might to fight these movement effectly. Even if they do, it's very expensive to fight separatist movements.


Bottom line: China's skyrocket to the top will come to a head over the next two decades. Eventually it will stabilize out, but the left's boner over how good China is doing is an illusion.

But to correct any misconceptions, China does not force a family to limit itself to one child. China will only pay the expense of the one child. A family can have others but must be willing to pay all expenses for the additional children. I would highly recommend the US adopt this policy to keep unwanted "anchor babies" from popping up all over America.

 

[American Horse]

China has been down the road of huge differentials in males and females before. Things sort of blanced out again due to the worlds worst civil war ever back in the 1860s.

As things move along, it will get scarier.

Too many frustrated males in a population can be a very dangerous thing.

 

[High_Gravity]

The Chinese people I met don't have particularly large families, so why the fuck is China overcrowded? Typically Muslim and Hispanic families have alot of kids, but I haven't noticed that from the Chinese.

 

[Avatar4321]

The Chinese people I met don't have particularly large families, so why the fuck is China overcrowded? Typically Muslim and Hispanic families have alot of kids, but I haven't noticed that from the Chinese.

The reason is obvious. In previous generations chinese families were quite different as were Muslim and Hispanic families. And having larger families in the past will create larger populations now. Because population can grow at an exponential rate.

 

[High_Gravity]

The Chinese people I met don't have particularly large families, so why the fuck is China overcrowded? Typically Muslim and Hispanic families have alot of kids, but I haven't noticed that from the Chinese.

The reason is obvious. In previous generations chinese families were quite different as were Muslim and Hispanic families. And having larger families in the past will create larger populations now. Because population can grow at an exponential rate.

Ah so the Chinese used to have large families.

 

[GHook93]

Look at some of the reasons the author points out!

Is China's rise overrated? - CNN.com

The reasons for American self-doubt are obvious and overwhelming at the moment. Still, a little perspective:

-- In the fall of 2008, some 300,000 Chinese children were poisoned when a Chinese dairy adulterated its infant formula with melamine in order to dupe testing machines into recording a higher protein content.

-- Perhaps the most impressive building in Beijing is the Chinese Central TV tower designed by the Dutch architect Rem Koolhaas. Formally opened in January 2008, the tower remains unoccupied because of fears about its soundness.

-- The price of cooking oil rose 27% in China last year, reports the Wall Street Journal. China is gripped by price inflation that has triggered a wave of strikes and protests across the country. You might expect China to suppress the inflation by tightening the supply of money. A tighter monetary policy, however, would cause the Chinese currency to rise, undercutting China's ability to export to the U.S.

-- In August 2009, three Chinese died of the same plague that caused the Black Death in Europe. For an advancing country, China is strangely vulnerable to infectious diseases, including the H5N1 variant of avian flu that has killed some 300 people.

-- China's population is rapidly aging as Chinese families have fewer children. China's working-age population will not increase between now and 2030. But the number of people 65 or older will triple.


I don't cite these points to deny the impressive reality of China's economic rise. That rise represents a colossal fact of the modern world, a challenge to China's neighbors, competitors and oftentimes to China itself.

Yet it's important not to lose sight of the other truth about China, a country facing problems as huge as its achievements.

The big prestige projects that impress Tom Friedman are real, but so equally are the squalor of the conditions in which most ordinary Chinese still live. The cities gleam, but 800 million Chinese still live in the countryside subject to the arbitrary power of local Communist party bosses.

China holds hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S. debt. But it bought that debt not as a favor to us, but as an unwanted byproduct of the currency manipulation that keeps China's currency artificially cheap.

Perhaps the most telling verdict on China's current situation is rendered in "Capitalism Without Democracy," an important book on Chinese entrepreneurs by Kellee Tsai: Almost unanimously, they wanted their children to leave China.

Americans worry intensely about competitors and rivals, potential and actual. Back in the 1960s, Americans feared the "terrifying efficiency" of the centrally planned Soviet economy, to borrow a no-joke famous phrase from the British politician Richard Crossman. In the 1980s, Americans felt themselves lagging behind "Japan as Number One," the title of a 1979 business best-seller.