Course it could be made to look like an "accident" say a carrier goes down because a missile was fired by "mistake" during an exercise.....I think Obama would accede to that readily
To use a poker analogy....(BTW the chinese are excellent poker players) obama is trying to bluff China....the problem being China knows it.
Anyone that knows anything about poker knows that in order for a bluff to work...the person you are trying to bluff must actually think there is a possibility of you having what you claim to have.
As a Chinese General said...the U.S. would not sacrifice L.A. to save Taiwan...and that statement has broad implications. aka they know that obama will not do anything at all that might provoke a war with China...so if anyone has a capability of bluffing it is China.....if they tell obama to get the hell out of the S. China sea or they are gong to nuke L.A. he would get out very, very quicky...you can bet on that.
But the Chinese are not going to have to say anything that drastic....what they will do is to set up a situation where there is some sort of military action with the U.S in the S. China sea....some American planes will be shot down or some U.S. navy vessel will be sunk....what would the U.S. do? You got it....nothing. I doubt China would even apologize...they will blame it on the U.S. being somewhere they should not be.
But that would not be the end of it....after such a 'humiliation' China will be emboldened to do it again...perhaps on a larger scale...perhaps with other nations aka Japan or the Phillippines...in other words they will keep this policy going until no one at all opposes their right to control, dominate aka own the S.China Sea.
They want to accomplish this before the elections where a wild card (Trump) might come into play...a wild card they would be very wary of....so if they can estblish their ownership of the S.China sea before Trump gets in...that would be a very good thing for them.
The chinese are very,very intelligent...unlike our leadership....they also are very cautious...and very patient but willing to make bold moves if everything is in their favor and it is. They know they must expand or die....they need territory and they need it very badly due to the numbers of people they have....in order to maintain a good standard of living for most...they will fight to the death before they allow anyone to push them back into the situation they were in for so long....starving and unable to do anything to protect their interests. They absolutely understand now is a most opportune time for them to acquire the S.China Sea at very little costs.....later might not be so good for them.
They are going to have a secret meeting soon...the top leadership...i think this will be at the top of the agenda. Their military is very aggressive and wants to demonstrate what they are capable of doing thus insuring more power and more support for the military...in fact I think the military will attempt to gain control of China and a good way to do it would be to run all other nations out of the S.China Sea....they would get huge amounts of support for doing that...people do not understand the great urge for revenge china has....especially against Japan but also against the whole western world for all the years the chinese were subjugated by the western powers.