In the long run, though, China will be tempted to take Taiwan, and they just might succeed. The global supply chain is already trying to rely less on Taiwan by moving more of its semiconductor manufacturing and supply chain away from there. Reduced reliance on Taiwan reduces the cost of an invasion to the rest of the world; it makes Taiwan more vulnerable. This won't happen all at once, but I think that the risks of a US-China clash are so great that the rest of the world would be fools to leave all their eggs in that basket.
If war breaks out over Taiwan it will probably be due to a miscalculation or some sort of perceived desperation by Xi. Despite all of China's diplomatic victories as of late, they're still dealing with capital flight pressures. The Chinese economy, despite reopening, isn't coming back as strongly as predicted. They are also facing significant pressure from recent restrictions on technology transfer for our best chips, and other countries are following suit. Moreover, China is in danger of having even more severe sanctions targeted at them. The concern is that Xi does something stupid to deal with his domestic pressures and to fight back against what he perceives as an undeclared war.
