And in Normal World, hiring is expected to increase, interest rates dropped at this morning's news, and the interest rate-sensitive NASDAQ loved it.
Obviously, we disagree on this but I am curious... at what point do you expect inflation to become a serious problem? In the first 100 days of the new administration, nearly 6T$ has been created out of the aether. They're talking about spending even MORE. If you do not believe this will lead to hyper-inflation could you please explain how we avoid it?
Okay, against my better judgement...
First of all, "hyperinflation" is being thrown around like "commie", and the terms are wrong in both cases. "Hyperinflation" usually means that inflation is increasing at
50% or more per month (
What Causes Hyperinflation). I wish we could be more precise with our terminology.
Second, those of us in the financial professions (21+ years in my case) were concerned about strong inflation in the QE programs after the Meltdown. It didn't happen. We were concerned when Trump slashed tax rates and exploded spending. I didn't happen.
Why not? All we can do is theorize. My theory is that there is still some kind of slack in our financial system, and that it
may be that lower and middle income families still don't have the cash to push the needle. That would explain why we only managed 2.4% GDP growth under Trump, even though unemployment got so low. That dichotomy simply does not compute. Some of my peers agree with me, some don't.
What's going to happen now? I don't know. Voices I trust in the industry say it could just be a short term spike, or it could be longer in duration. But because this "slack" may still exist, there is simply no way to know for sure. What I
do know is that people just love to make assumptions and extrapolations based on weak and incomplete information, and their opinion is worthless to me.