If 20% of registered dems vote for him he wins. Not only that, once treacherous Hillary teaches millions of Bernie virgins how dirty delegate stealing Rat politics REALLY works, Trump will gain 20 million revenge votes.
Presidential polls updates 2016: Trump vs. Clinton — 20 percent of Democrats likely to vote for Trump | Christian News on Christian Today!
I agree with the synopsis. Most internals say the same thing, which is why the Democrats have their panties in a knot, although they are saying around 18%.
What is significant about this is..............of the Democrats polled...........which is significant. Why? Because they also point to a significant drop off in Democratic voters this cycle. So, of the Democratic party votes actually cast, it could end up being a significantly higher percentage of total registered Democrats who actually cast a ballot.
But, all news is not good news, sigh! If the republicans stay home as some on here threaten, then the Democrats would still win the battle of "the vote that wasn't."
Can you show us anyone other than Mercury Analytics saying this? Remembering of course that the 'dial study' doesn't ask how anyone will actually vote.
Skylar, people keep pointing to this poll, then that poll, to back up their theories. Do you know which polls change the least throughout any campaign? ISSUE polls. If gay marriage or abortion are important to you on January 1st, they are important to you in November. Letting people know what issues you support, or do not support, is what moves national polls on who is leading as people start to learn what a candidate stands for, or not.
The only thing that over rides issue polls, is personality...........likability............trust, unless the issues are skewed so far one way, these personality traits can not overcome them. That is the crux of a national, political, election!
Now, you want to know what/how internals are calculated? In a nutshell, look at the issue polls, then decide if the party/person can overcome being on the wrong side of most issues by being likable; or more likable than their opponent to independents, and those on the fence. Throw in a few wonky calculations on calculated voter turnout for both sides, add your known electoral votes, see which electoral votes are probably coming your way, then find the easiest path to get the rest by population make up in the states remaining. It is how it works!
Let me ask you something quite logical, and answer it to yourself------------> If I say instead of 80% Hispanics are going to vote Democratic..................and change it to------>98% of Mexican and Guatemalan Americans are voting Democratic, but 53% of Cuban Americans are voting GOP, what does that tell you?
It tells me that California and Illinois is going Democrat, (no surprise there) but that Florida will probably go GOP. (a very big surprise there for some)
Now, instead of saying that 93% of Democratic voters showing at the polls will vote Democratic...........what if I said instead that 93% will vote Democratic, but that 40% of bluecollar Democrats are going to cross over. Whoa! What does that mean for Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Virginia? Means absolutely nothing in New York, but who thought the GOP would win that anyway?
So when someone like you, (no offense) or Jilly, Jake, or some others point out we have this % of this groups vote, while impressive to say the least, it is more important to discover what sub-group of that group, will probably not vote for you, and where are they concentrated at.
Let me give you a final example-------------> since I do not know exactly, lets make up a number for discussion purposes. We will use Mexican American votes as a point...........suppose there are 25 million Mexican Americans in the country, 1st generation, and 95% are voting Democratic according to the polls.
Now then, 10 million are currently living in California under our example. Was the GOP going to win California, or even have a chance? NO! Impact, 0! 5 million are living in Illinois. Was the GOP ever counting on winning Illinois? NO! Impact, 0! 5 million are living in Texas. Did the Democrats think they were going to win Texas? NO. Impact, 0! So now we are dispersing the other 5 million across what, 47 states? Able to impact, for sure, but a monolith, no.
This is exactly how BOTH party's view sets, and subsets of people, and their issues. So always remember one brutal truth, it is NOT about the percentage who will vote with you, but the percentage that will not, are they able to be targeted because they have something in common, and is that sub group gathered in numbers in a state that can be swung? It is electoral chess, and I am here to tell you the Democrats are sweating. Doesn't mean they will lose, just means they are very uncomfortable.
Right now, it is all up in the air because neither party nominee has been chosen. Different nominees poll stronger on different issues from both sides. That is exactly why I see this as so much fun.................because making the case for Trump or Hillary, is not the same as making the case for Rubio or Bernie. Lets see what happens-)
