Bill and Hillary's Electability Myths

[manifold]

The crux of Bill and Hillary Clinton’s argument regarding her "electability" has been two-fold. One is that she is the only candidate who can beat John McCain, based on their assessment of electoral votes needed to win the election, and the other is that without the support of white, middle-class, male voters Obama can’t win in November. I would like to try today to put both of these theories to rest and also make a point about the foolishness of depending on polls 6 months out from an election.

http://www.chron.com/commons/persona.html?newspaperUserId=desperado&plckController=PersonaBlog&plckScript=personaScript&plckElementId=personaDest&plckPersonaPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3AdesperadoPost%3A2d8ac725-3fcd-4d92-a721-799ee373dadf

 

[manifold]

 

[Jon]

The crux of Bill and Hillary Clinton’s argument regarding her "electability" has been two-fold. One is that she is the only candidate who can beat John McCain, based on their assessment of electoral votes needed to win the election, and the other is that without the support of white, middle-class, male voters Obama can’t win in November. I would like to try today to put both of these theories to rest and also make a point about the foolishness of depending on polls 6 months out from an election.

http://www.chron.com/commons/persona.html?newspaperUserId=desperado&plckController=PersonaBlog&plckScript=personaScript&plckElementId=personaDest&plckPersonaPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3AdesperadoPost%3A2d8ac725-3fcd-4d92-a721-799ee373dadf

Did you WRITE that article? It's just as irrelevant as your posts. It claims that polls now mean nothing about actual elections. Guess what, we don't know what the polls in November could look like. But it makes more sense to go with the strongest candidate now, not the one that COULD be stronger in six months. What's more likely? That Clinton can maintain a lead in swing states, or Obama can close 10 point gaps?

 

[Ravi]

Did you WRITE that article? It's just as irrelevant as your posts. It claims that polls now mean nothing about actual elections. Guess what, we don't know what the polls in November could look like. But it makes more sense to go with the strongest candidate now, not the one that COULD be stronger in six months. What's more likely? That Clinton can maintain a lead in swing states, or Obama can close 10 point gaps?

Even though IMO she has the strongest chance to win against McCain, the Obama camp's repeatedly portraying her as a racist means she cannot win. I'm sure they wouldn't stop pretending she is one if she won the nominee.

 

[Jon]

If Clinton does pull off a miracle and takes the nomination, Obama will put everything he can behind her. He will run again after she takes office, and he is not going to do anything to jeopardize that future prospect of his. He can't afford to jeopardize her chances at the presidency if she wins the nominations, while she can afford not to back him 100%.oo

 

[Gunny]

The crux of Bill and Hillary Clinton’s argument regarding her "electability" has been two-fold. One is that she is the only candidate who can beat John McCain, based on their assessment of electoral votes needed to win the election, and the other is that without the support of white, middle-class, male voters Obama can’t win in November. I would like to try today to put both of these theories to rest and also make a point about the foolishness of depending on polls 6 months out from an election.

Chron.commons | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle

Remember the old red state/blue state maps of the last two elections? I suggest you take a good look at them. Obama is losing to another Democrat in the same areas both Gore and Kerry lost.

It really doesn't matter what Bill and or Hillary say. It matters what independent and moderate conservative voters say because THEY have decided every election since '72.

IMO, I would consider voting for Hillary running against McCain. I will under no circumstances vote for Obama. And that's what I keep hearing from independents and moderate conservatives.

But don't look at any of the facts. Vote for Obama.

Isn't this all a matter of academics at this point anyway? Extremist leftists and the MSM have hijacked the Democrat nomination. Nothing really left but the formal announcement.

So I'd say you need to quit beating this dead horse and try to figure out how you're going to get an elitist, ultra-liberal Obama over on McCain. I'm sure a smear campaign like the one run against Hillary might work.

 

[Jon]

At this point, I really do wish Hillary would run as an independent. I wish she'd said, "Fuck liberals" and start a third party. Hell, I wish McCain would say, "Fuck conservatives" and do the same thing.

Moderates need their own party.

 

[Gunny]

At this point, I really do wish Hillary would run as an independent. I wish she'd said, "Fuck liberals" and start a third party. Hell, I wish McCain would say, "Fuck conservatives" and do the same thing.

Moderates need their own party.

IIRC, someone told me she would have to declare herself as an independent candidate by a certain date or she isn't eligible to run.

What I would like to see is everyone on both sides write in candidates other than those chosen by the parties.

What happens THEN? Remember we don't have a "right" to vote for President. Does the machine completely ignore the people and still put one of the two candidates chosen by the parties in office?

If nothing else, it would show "we, the people" just exactly where we stand. At the whim of a political machine that no longer represents us.

 

[manifold]

If Clinton does pull off a miracle and takes the nomination, Obama will put everything he can behind her. He will run again after she takes office, and he is not going to do anything to jeopardize that future prospect of his. He can't afford to jeopardize her chances at the presidency if she wins the nominations, while she can afford not to back him 100%.oo

It wouldn't be a miracle. It would be insider politics at it's best...err..worst.

 

[Jon]

It wouldn't be a miracle. It would be insider politics at it's best...err..worst.

The members of the Democratic party have the right to select whatever candidate they want.

That's life.

 

[Toro]

Remember the old red state/blue state maps of the last two elections? I suggest you take a good look at them. Obama is losing to another Democrat in the same areas both Gore and Kerry lost.

It really doesn't matter what Bill and or Hillary say. It matters what independent and moderate conservative voters say because THEY have decided every election since '72.

IMO, I would consider voting for Hillary running against McCain. I will under no circumstances vote for Obama. And that's what I keep hearing from independents and moderate conservatives.

But don't look at any of the facts. Vote for Obama.

Isn't this all a matter of academics at this point anyway? Extremist leftists and the MSM have hijacked the Democrat nomination. Nothing really left but the formal announcement.

So I'd say you need to quit beating this dead horse and try to figure out how you're going to get an elitist, ultra-liberal Obama over on McCain. I'm sure a smear campaign like the one run against Hillary might work.

Two points.

First, on policy, there isn't much difference between Hillary and Obama. From an economic standpoint, I'd say Obama is more to the center than Hillary. If somehow the Reverend Wright somehow influences how you think about Obama, well, God Bless You.

Second, you don't win elections because you don't like someone. It doesn't matter much if independents or moderate conservatives won't vote for Obama if they don't vote. People without a stake don't show up to vote because they don't like someone. Conservatives loathed Slick Willie in 1996 and liberals despised Shrub in 2004. It didn't make a wit of difference.

People generally vote for, not against candidates. And last time I checked, there isn't a whole lot of support from the conservative base of the party for McCain. If hardcore conservatives don't show up to vote, this election is over. It doesn't matter what the moderates or independents do.

I'll go back to this - Obama fills arenas and stadiums while McCain can't fill a hotel ballroom. Groveling in front of conservative groups does not portend well for November.

The Democrats have all the money, all the issues, and all the momentum. The Republicans have lost three bedrock conservative districts in Congressional elections the past two months. Republicans are retiring from Congress like never before.

Its the Democrats to lose.



(And I give them 50/50 they will!)

 

[Jon]

I'll go back to this - Obama fills arenas and stadiums while McCain can't fill a hotel ballroom.

I go back to the same thing:

Obama fills stadiums at five times the capacity of Clinton, yet he can't get 5 times the votes of Hillary. Speaks volumes about how polarizing Obama is. He's just as polarizing as Clinton, otherwise he would have shut this election out months ago.

 

[Toro]

I go back to the same thing:

Obama fills stadiums at five times the capacity of Clinton, yet he can't get 5 times the votes of Hillary. Speaks volumes about how polarizing Obama is. He's just as polarizing as Clinton, otherwise he would have shut this election out months ago.

Considering the power and influence of the Clintons in the Democrat Party, and the fact that Hillary was the anointed and prohibitive favorite, with all the money, organization and momentum a mere six months ago, it does not surprise me, at least in retrospect, that the election has gone this far.

Remember, Kennedy eked out Nixon.

 

[Jon]

Considering the power and influence of the Clintons in the Democrat Party, and the fact that Hillary was the anointed and prohibitive favorite, with all the money, organization and momentum a mere six months ago, it does not surprise me, at least in retrospect, that the election has gone this far.

Remember, Kennedy eked out Nixon.

The fact is, people claim Hillary to be this ultra polarizing figure. You see thousands of fans at Obama's rallies, and see very few at her. But when it comes time to vote, he either loses, or he wins by a small margin. That tells you there are voters who don't support Clinton, but they sure as hell don't want Obama in office.

THAT is what is going to give McCain the win in November. The silent voters who don't support candidates, they oppose them.

 

[Ravi]

If Clinton does pull off a miracle and takes the nomination, Obama will put everything he can behind her. He will run again after she takes office, and he is not going to do anything to jeopardize that future prospect of his. He can't afford to jeopardize her chances at the presidency if she wins the nominations, while she can afford not to back him 100%.oo

mmm, I suppose. Still, the damage is done.

 

[busara]

IMO, I would consider voting for Hillary running against McCain. I will under no circumstances vote for Obama. And that's what I keep hearing from independents and moderate conservatives.

But don't look at any of the facts. Vote for Obama.

I'm sure a smear campaign like the one run against Hillary might work.

you keep hearing? i have talked with upwards of 50 dems and independents and have not had one person, not one, say they would vote for hillary. it seems to me people who are familiar with her past will not support her in any way. your opinion is way off. but wait, that must make me an elitist.

its funny how pointing out flaws in someone constitutes a smear campaign. i truly dont understand how she garners any support. and i dont understand how anyone would prefer mccain to obama. why are people so enamored with her? ive been asking this question but never get an answer.
i just wish my candidate made it farther

 

[Gunny]

you keep hearing? i have talked with upwards of 50 dems and independents and have not had one person, not one, say they would vote for hillary. it seems to me people who are familiar with her past will not support her in any way. your opinion is way off. but wait, that must make me an elitist.

its funny how pointing out flaws in someone constitutes a smear campaign. i truly dont understand how she garners any support. and i dont understand how anyone would prefer mccain to obama. why are people so enamored with her? ive been asking this question but never get an answer.
i just wish my candidate made it farther

Yeah, just like you ... I keep hearing. What's your point? Perhaps we don't hang out in the same crowds?

Pointing out flaws does not constitute a smear campain, nor is that what I stated ... IS IT? Blowing them out of proportion an beating them to death or making inferences that they meant something they clearly did not is a smear campaign.

Perhaps you should do a little reading instead of just jumping in with both feet and running your suck? I'm hardly enamored with ANY of the three current candidates and if Daffy Duck was to declare against them I'd probably vote for him.

Preferrring McCain to Obama is simple. At least we know what we're going to get with McCain, like it or not. Given a choice between the two it's a no-brainer.

 

[Jon]

Preferrring McCain to Obama is simple. At least we know what we're going to get with McCain, like it or not. Given a choice between the two it's a no-brainer.

And that pretty much sums it up. McCain and Clinton have been in the public eye long enough for me to know what I'm getting when I vote for them. There are no more skeletons in their closets, those were brought out a long time ago.

But as this campaign continues, more and more of Obama's little friends keep popping up, and it makes me wonder why people still support him. Really, it does.

 

[busara]

Yeah, just like you ... I keep hearing. What's your point? Perhaps we don't hang out in the same crowds?

my point is that your point was meaningless. its all subjective.

Pointing out flaws does not constitute a smear campain, nor is that what I stated ... IS IT? Blowing them out of proportion an beating them to death or making inferences that they meant something they clearly did not is a smear campaign.

and only obama has done that?

Perhaps you should do a little reading instead of just jumping in with both feet and running your suck?

i HAVE done my reading. thats why i will absolutely not vote for clinton. anyone who will is either flat out ignoring her past or ignorant of it.

Preferrring McCain to Obama is simple. At least we know what we're going to get with McCain, like it or not. Given a choice between the two it's a no-brainer.

that is the most pathetic excuse i've ever heard for preferring a candidate. you know how bad mccain is, but you dont know if obama is bad. so youll go with the one you know is bad. yea, thats flawless logic

 

[Jon]

i HAVE done my reading. thats why i will absolutely not vote for clinton. anyone who will is either flat out ignoring her past or ignorant of it.

It's easier to ignore her past and embrace her present than it is to embrace Obama's present. It's been 20 years since Clinton was linked to a controversy as big as Obama.