Page | 4 U.S Residential Mortgage Market The U.S residential mortgage market, according to Milken Institute research amounts to approximately $10.6tn. This is out of a total value of $19.3tn of the U.S housing market, meaning the remaining $8.7tn consists of home owner equity. Furthermore, there are roughly 80mn houses in the U.S where 27mn of them are fully paid off, leaving 53mn or 2/3 with some kind of mortgage. Of the $10.6tn mortgage market 7.6% or $0.81tn - only a fraction - was recognized as subprime mortgages, down from 13.5% just four years ago. All data above is as of June 2008.
All in all, the actual number of unemployed people in the U.S therefore totals close to 10mn. Moreover, 2.5mn previous full-time workers have been demoted to part- time. According to James Chessen, Chief Economist at ABA, “delinquencies won’t come down without a
dramatic improvement in the economy and businesses will have to start hiring again”. Source: U.S Government Accountability Office
As mentioned in Business Insider recently, the new wave of resets concerns borrowers with originally better credit scores than subprime holders, however they have pursued similar strategies. In essence, they have financed loans with low starting rates and when time has come to refinance there are three options basically. First, you can sell the house (not an option for most homeowners since LTV>100%). Secondly, you can work out a new comparable deal (not likely today with delinquencies and foreclosure rates rocketing). Thirdly and what increases in popularity with worrying speed is that you can just walk away. This “strategic default” as the media calls it has rocketed during the first half of 2009 and now amounts to 26% of all defaults across the US. According to a study from Northwestern University and
University of Chicago, there is an 82% chance that someone who knows a person that has defaulted strategically will do it themselves. In other words there is considerable risk for a negative domino effect if this kind of defaults continues.
US Residential Mortgage Report
In upscale communities such as Los Altos, Greenbrae and Alamo, where median prices top $1 million, about twice as many households received default notices from January to September as in the same period in 2008, according to recorders' office data compiled by MDA DataQuick, a San Diego real estate research firm.
The same is true for mid-scale areas with median prices around $500,000, such as Walnut Creek, Los Gatos and Campbell.
Default notices rising in upper echelon ZIPs - SFGate
About 2.57 percent of prime borrowers who took out jumbo loans last year were at least 60 days delinquent, according to LPS Applied Analytics, a mortgage data service in Jacksonville, Florida. They got to that level within 10 months, almost twice as quickly as 2007 borrowers and the fastest rate since at least 1992, when LPS Applied Analytics began tracking the market.
The jump in late payments on jumbo loans, while still lower than the 20 percent delinquencies in subprime mortgages, signals that the borrowers with the most money and the best credit are hurting as the U.S. recession deepens in its second year.
Jumbo Mortgage Rates Reflect Default Risk | Mortgaged Future
From May through October 2009, the mortgage default rate for borrowers with credit scores of 760 to 850 was 0.32 percent, versus 0.12 percent for credit cards, according to the report. (FICO considers loans 90 days or more past due to be in default.)
Of course, that mortgage-default level is still far lower than the 4.5 percent rate for all mortgage borrowers during this period, according to FICO, which is based in Minneapolis.
Even High-Score Borrowers at Risk of Mortgage Default Brookhampton Blog