Not since Clinton leading Dole has a candidate enjoyed such a prolonged, strong lead in the polls.
Which means, yes, a bigger lead than what Hillary had in 2016. Hillary’s biggest lead in the polls was 7 points in comparison to Biden’s 15-point lead. This obviously isn’t to say that if the election were held today he would win by 15 points, but even as an outlier poll, it’s massive.
Republicans are hoping the polls will be wrong like they were last time. For some reason, in their minds, 2016’s misleading polling undermined the entire polling process because Hillary lost. This of course ignores the fact that the polls done in the 2018 election were much more accurate and prior Presidential elections to 2016 were relatively accurate as well.
Now all this isn’t to say I am ruling out a Trump victory because it could still happen with 3.5 months left. It just means Trump’s chances of victory are based on the hope for another total fluke.
Which means, yes, a bigger lead than what Hillary had in 2016. Hillary’s biggest lead in the polls was 7 points in comparison to Biden’s 15-point lead. This obviously isn’t to say that if the election were held today he would win by 15 points, but even as an outlier poll, it’s massive.
Republicans are hoping the polls will be wrong like they were last time. For some reason, in their minds, 2016’s misleading polling undermined the entire polling process because Hillary lost. This of course ignores the fact that the polls done in the 2018 election were much more accurate and prior Presidential elections to 2016 were relatively accurate as well.
Now all this isn’t to say I am ruling out a Trump victory because it could still happen with 3.5 months left. It just means Trump’s chances of victory are based on the hope for another total fluke.
Big Polling Leads Have Tended to Erode. Is Biden's Edge Different?
Joe Biden's commanding advantage in the race for the White House shows no sign of abating. He led by 15 percentage points in an ABC News/Washington Post survey of registered voters Sunday, and he has held nearly a double-digit lead in an average of polls for more than a month.The last time a...
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