Coyote,
et al,
I tend to speak in the minimalist form.
(COMMENT)
Yes, both are a possibility; but not likely. It would be highly improbably that there would emerge to great personalities, each on the opposite side, that would grow to command the loyalty and following necessary to bring peace and a positive relationship to the region.
I think it is more likely than moving 4 million people - I can't see that. I think Israel has the greater potential for a strong pragmatic leader who will make some sacrifices and compromises in order to force a deal that will be to their long term benefit. Holding onto the occupied territories is costly both politically, militarily and financially. It's a very high cost for a very few people (I'm thinking West Bank/Gaza) and the Israeli public itself is divided on maintaining it. Whether the Palestinians can or will accept it is much more questionable. A huge obstacle is settlements. Jeruselem and Right of Return are also issues and it might be that that is where the Palestinian leadership will have to give. I see more difficulty in getting the Palestinians to give but in absence of a strong leader it's possible that the other Arab countries can exert pressure and offer benefits.
(COMMENT)
As I said earlier, neither side hurts enough yet to make any meaningful progress towards good faith negotiations.
There is no question about the cost. Trying to annex the territory will be "politically, militarily and financially" a great burden. But to maintain the "occupation" is more cost effective.
Damn near everyone understood that the settlement issue was going to have reprocussions un the Rome Statutes
[Para 2b(viii), Article 8, (War Crime)] and the Geneva Convention IV
(Article 49) at some point. It would be almost impossible to justify the Israeli settlements in any ICC/ICJ proceedings. And that will be a loss, no only in political capital, but in terms of reparations and damages.
The Israeli has no intention of trying to move the 4M Arab/Palestinians. The want to set the conditions such that the Arab/Palestinian will eventually dissipate on their own, moving on to greener pastures
(which might take another 100 years).
I am not suggesting that "compromise" be used in the same context as "sacrifice."
I'm not sure what you mean exactly?
(COMMENT)
Jerusalem is a psychological/heritage issue on one-hand, and a religious issue on another.
To the Arab/Palestinians call it a "Holy Site," but having been there, I can tell you they do not treat it as a "Holy Site" like the other in the Islamic world. The Arab/Palestinian wants it because they want it; not because it has any strategic importants or religions significants. Today, it has an intangible political value.
To compromise
(either on the Israeli side or the Arab/Palestinian side) would be to strike a deal between the parties where each gives up part of their demand to the site.
To sacrifice
(either on the Israeli side or the Arab/Palestinian side), would entail giving up that which has some intrinsic valuable or important
(political, religious, or both) to one side or the other --- considered to be of more value or importance (the cause of peace); a higher cause that is enshrine by the sacrifice.
While compromise is in the lexicon of both the Arab/Palestinian and the Israel, and the process of negotiation has used the concept, it has
(more often than not) come to no avail --- a series failed outcomes relative to a settlement between the two parties.
But neither party has the concept of "sacrifice" in their vocabulary.
Both sides believe that they can outlast the other, and thus, have no real incentive for peace. The Arab/Palestinian will play the role of the victim and essentially try to politically isolate Israel, while Israel will try to contain it opponent until it has exhausted its resources to sustain the effort.
Most Respectfully,
R