There is no such thing as a consensus in science. Science can easily be paid to create the results wanted.
There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of ...
pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Summary
There is increasing concern that most current published research findings are false. The probability that a research claim is true may depend on study power and bias, the number of other studies on the same question, and, importantly, the ratio of true to no relationships among the relationships probed in each scientific field. In this framework,
a research finding is less likely to be true when the studies conducted in a field are smaller; when effect sizes are smaller; when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships; where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes; when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice; and when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance. Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias. In this essay, I discuss the implications of these problems for the conduct and interpretation of research.
Science once stated smoking was good for you
So just to clarify: you're using a single paper, written about a reproducibility crisis in
biomedical research, to argue that all of science, including climate science, is unreliable?
That same paper literally cautions against overinterpreting individual studies, especially in fields with small sample sizes, low signal-to-noise ratios, few replications, and high flexibility in statistical modeling, none of which apply meaningfully to climate science.
Climate science, by contrast, is a global, multi-disciplinary field grounded in massive data sets, direct observation (e.g. satellites, ice cores, temperature records), and predictive models validated across decades. The effects being measured are large, persistent, and replicated across independent lines of evidence.
And even then, you’re not citing the study’s methodology or argument, just its
title and its abstract, as if that’s sufficient to dismiss an entire body of empirical work.
I appreciate the effort, but this isn't even close to a convincing application of that research. It’s a misreading, applied out of context, to support a sweeping ideological claim the author himself never makes.
If anything, your post illustrates the kind of "bias-driven interpretation" Ioannidis was warning
against. So, no I'm sorry, but this doesn't work on me. I read the links provided, and I understood was what said in this one.
Also, here is a talk by Ioannidis himself (around 25:00 minutes) where he explains how many significant results can indicate flawed data. He also shows that geosciences, which includes climate science, have some of the
lowest rates of such problematic findings. So, your claim about the entire field being unreliable is contradicted by the very data the author presents.