Brian Levin, an attorney and criminologist, said the overall risk posed by anti-government groups is growing. Levin, who directs the nonpartisan Center for the Study of Hate & Extremism at California State University, said it was a "material change" that the militants in Oregon have moved from "mere rhetoric to action, and from action to forceful action."
"This is a significant milestone because we’re seeing now a coalescence of a grassroots organization, which is responding to events and trying to influence them through show of force," Levin said. "We’re seeing aggressive and criminal conduct to make this point."
The groups tend to lack central direction, sophisticated organization and recruiting networks. Some aren't groups at all, but loners or partnerships. That can make them less of an overall threat than
Salafi jihadist groups like ISIS and al-Shabaab, Levin said.
Patriot groups "don’t have the organization or hierarchical power that say, ISIS does," Levin said. "Are they terrorists? As a technical matter, yes. But on the same hand, they’re not ISIS, and nor should our response to them" be the same.
Much like in the 2014 standoff at the Bundy ranch, federal officials in Oregon have thus far declined to take the bait by challenging the militants'
"kill and be killed" stance.
Levin, who described himself as third-generation law enforcement, said the "less is more" approach to handling the militants will avoid opportunity for martyrdom or further notoriety.
"When things go south, the first question is always, 'Why didn’t you wait?'" Levin said. "A court order is still valid, and can be executed at a time and place of the government’s convenience. And no one gets killed. And we haven’t given these extremists fodder for their own recruitment efforts."
While a threat exists as long as the militants remain armed, Levin noted federal officials can afford to give the occupants room, since they effectively "put themselves in their own jail" by holing up in a remote and empty building with few snacks.
"Do you want to eat frozen Spam over a half-lit fire in a desolate tundra? Knockyourself out," Levin said. "It’s not like they occupied a resort in Maui.”