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The wall of water raced through narrow Himalayan gorges in northeast India, gathering speed as it raked the banks of towering trees and boulders. When the torrent struck their island in the Brahmaputra river, the villagers remember, it took only moments to obliterate their houses, possessions and livestock. No one knows exactly how the disaster happened, but everyone knows whom to blame: neighboring China.
"We don't trust the Chinese," says fisherman Akshay Sarkar at the resettlement site where he has lived since the 2000 flood. "They gave us no warning. They may do it again." About 500 miles east, in northern Thailand, Chamlong Saengphet stands in the Mekong river, in water that comes only up to her shins. She is collecting edible river weeds from dwindling beds. A neighbor has hung up his fishing nets, his catches now too meager. Using words bordering on curses, they point upstream, toward China.
Blame game
The blame game, voiced in vulnerable river towns and Asian capitals from Pakistan to Vietnam, is rooted in fear that China's accelerating program of damming every major river flowing from the Tibetan plateau will trigger natural disasters, degrade fragile ecologies, divert vital water supplies. A few analysts and environmental advocates even speak of water as a future trigger for war or diplomatic strong-arming, though others strongly doubt it will come to that. Still, the remapping of the water flow in the world's most heavily populated and thirstiest region is happening on a gigantic scale, with potentially strategic implications.
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An estimated 60 million fishermen and farmers depend on the Mekong River for its rich nutrients and abundant fish. A new study by a group of scientists said by 2050 climate change could raise temperatures in parts of the Mekong basin twice as fast as the global average. That would intensify extreme weather events, such as flooding, and reduce fish and crop production says study leader Jeremy Carew-Reid. He said, "In Laos alone there are some 700 species that are used by families to sustain their livelihoods. We know so little about them."
While some species will benefit from hotter climates, important crops such as coffee in Vietnam and rice in Thailand could be forced to move. But fish in the Mekong system, the largest inland fishery in the world, cannot relocate so easily and fish farming has already reached its environmentally sustainable capacity. Some 30,000 man-made barriers, such as hydropower dams, compound the effects of climate change, said Carew-Reid. When you take those in concert with climate change, we're looking at a pretty, a pretty negative scenario for fisheries in the basin, he said. Scientists at the study's release in Bangkok said dams and other barriers constitute the single largest threat to fish diversity and production.
A fisherman casts his net in the Mekong river in Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Laos, controversially, is set to build the first of several hydropower dams on the mainstream of the Mekong. Hans Guttman, chief executive officer for the Mekong River Commission, warns the extent of damage from the dams is still unknown. He said, How much damage is under intense speculation. And, whether all of the dams will be built according to some of the plans or whether some of them will be built and that will then cause a different level of impact, and how the benefits that are generated will be used to compensate or to deal with some of these impacts, is still very much uncertain.
The U.S. Agency for International Development funded the study as part of its Lower Mekong Initiative. Alfred Nakatsuma, the regional director of USAID's environment office, said, "The governments in general in these regions are very interested in climate change because the welfare of their people is at stake. And, it's better to address these activities now rather than later when they're surely going to be more costly. But just as economics are driving dam construction, scientists say poverty will make it harder for people to adapt to rising temperatures.
Source
The Worldwide Fund for Nature report, titled "Ecosystems in the Greater Mekong," said between 1973 and 2009 lower Mekong countries chopped down almost a third of their forests for timber and to clear land for agriculture. Burma and Laos lost 24 percent of their forest cover. Cambodia lost 22 percent of their forests, while Thailand and Vietnam cleared 43 percent of their trees. "Core forests," a three-kilometer square area of uninterrupted forest, have dropped from 70 to 20 percent of total forest area. The conservation group says the pace of deforestation is accelerating, and countries risk losing a third of their remaining trees by 2030.
Geoffrey Blate is a regional advisor on ecology for the Worldwide Fund for Nature in Bangkok and contributor to the report. He said it appears the overall highest amount of forest clearing happened where there were the most trees -- in Burma, also known as Myanmar. "It appears that Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos are really, you know, sort of the hot spots for deforestation right now," he said. "That's where most of the remaining large expanses of forest are and that's where we have seen the highest deforestation rates as well." The report's findings were based on analysis of satellite data and are in contrast to some official figures from those countries.
A Laotian fisherman casts his net in the Mekong river in Luang Prabang,
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization reported official country figures in the region show that deforestation rates slowed from 2000-2010. The Worldwide Fund for Nature says those figures could be misleading, because some countries label agriculture plantations for rubber trees, cassava and palm oil as forested areas. Such practices could be responsible for Vietnams claimed increase in forest coverage. Forestry experts said countries in the region fail to place enough value on their forests and look only at the market price for extracted or harvested resources.
Thomas Enters is a U.N. regional coordinator for the Asia Pacific. He said a political commitment is needed at the highest level because the economic incentive is to bring in investors that clear forests. "What they do not value is the biodiversity that is in there and the various ecosystem services, such as soil protection, watershed protection -- basically keeping the water cleaner, keeping sediments in the uplands instead of having them come down, washed into the rivers and into the reservoirs that are basically constructed behind dams," stated Enters. Enters said restrictions on logging in the region only came into place after devastating floods, indicating that natural forest cover is likely to continue going down until countries realize they have lost too much.
Forests at Risk in Southeast Asia's Lower Mekong Region
Already some 500 million children live in areas with limited water supplies, and the demand for water today far exceeds available resources in 36 countries, UNICEF said. Supplies are expected to shrink further due to droughts, rising temperatures, flooding, population growth and urbanization, the U.N. agency said in a report. If no action is taken to clean up and conserve water supplies, more children will be forced to drink potentially unsafe water as a result, UNICEF said.
Climate change plays a part
School children look at a drone camera during the inauguration ceremony of a water filtration tower at their school in Nai Basti Village, near New Delhi, India
“Around the world, millions of children lack access to safe water — endangering their lives, undermining their health, and jeopardizing their futures,” said UNICEF executive director Anthony Lake. “This crisis will only grow unless we take collective action now” he added in a statement. Climate change is one of the reasons behind reduced water sources in the future, impacting "the quality and quantity of the water," Cecilia Scharp, a senior water advisor at UNICEF, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. Flooding, which is expected to increase due to rising sea levels and changing weather patterns, can pollute water supplies and spread unsafe water across wide areas. Droughts are also expected to increase in frequency and severity.
More work for women, girls
An Indian woman collects water leaking from a safety valve on an underground pipeline on World Water Day in Kolkata, India
Women and girls now spend 200 million hours a day collecting water, and this will rise if they are forced to travel further to reach water sources, making them vulnerable to attack in some countries, UNICEF said. UNICEF's projections are based on models assuming no action is taken to conserve water and tackle pollution, Scharp said. But governments, industries, agricultural businesses and communities can help diminish the impact of climate change on children in countries pressed for water resources, the agency said. Governments should plan for risks to water supplies from drought, rising temperatures, flooding, population growth and urbanization, Scharp said.
Reusing waste water
A woman carry bags of water she bought on a street in Baruwa Lagos, Nigeria
Businesses should ensure they are conserving as much water as possible, and reusing waste water whenever they can, UNICEF said. “You can use economic incentives so people don't overuse [water],” Scharp said of local governments. “You can put restrictions on ... personal use of water in urban areas where a lot of water is used for lifestyle activities, more than [for] consumption.” Poorer children will be hurt the most by a depletion of water sources in the future. This “should come as no surprise,” UNICEF said.
UNICEF: One in Four Children May Face Severe Water Shortages by 2040
Dead elephants, buffaloes, zebras, giraffes, cattle, sheep and goats dot the landscape. While some died from the drought, some of the wildlife was shot or speared to death by armed herders in search of pasture and water for their tens of thousands of cattle, sheep and goats. Ranch and conservancy owners say these herders are invading their private property — breaking fences, stealing cattle, using grass and water meant for their livestock and their neighbors' livestock, cutting down olive trees for the leaves, even killing the owner of Sosian ranch in March when he went to check on burned houses. About 35 people have died in the unrest. "This is not the first dry season we've had," said Martin Evans, chairman of the Laikipia Farmers' Association and the owner of Ol Maisor farm. "And when this thing happened, it wasn't a matter of drought. It was a normal rainy season when they came in. This is a politically instigated invasion, as far as we can see. They're using the cattle as a tool, as a battering ram, to just take over private property."
Pokot herders watch their cattle in Mugie Conservancy, Laikipia, Kenya
As Kenya's August general elections approach, many believe politicians are drumming up constituent support by encouraging these armed herders to take what they want. "We are very much worried because we can see this issue is political. This is not illegal grazing, this is abnormal illegal grazing," said Mamo Abdullahi Abdi, 42, a resident of Kinamba village, next to Ol Maisor. "I know, even for us to vote in this general election, it is sad for us to vote because they want to scare us so these people with illegal guns will take over Laikipia North constituency."
Locals vs. outsiders
And during this election year, some politicians have told their followers that white landowners should leave, even stating, incorrectly, that their leases have expired. Daniel Eshikon Lorangen, the area chief of Lonyek village, said politicians should not incite people with such misinformation. He said that because Kenya's government owns the country's land, only the government can renegotiate leases when they expire. It is not a decision to be made by herders who illegally enter private property. "So for that, I think Kenya really respects the rule of the law, and we need to respect that," said Lorangen. But Tiziana Wangui, 35, and other villagers in Kinamba do not want landowners like their neighbor Evans to leave, because they said he helps them during difficult times. "Especially Martin Evans, he was born here, we buried his father ... here, so this is their land. This is his home. Their children are our schoolmates. We schooled together here, so I don't think they have anywhere else to go," said Wangui.
Village women collect food donations from the Laikipia Nature Conservancy in Kenya, where owner Kuki Gallmann distributes staple foods and water to help her neighbors get through the drought
Perhaps surprisingly, even some of the northern pastoralists said they appreciated the ranchers. Rueben Lokolongolo, 47, a Pokot herder from Lokichogio in northwest Kenya, brought his cattle to graze in Mugie Ranch and Conservancy in January. "I'm not happy that some people are saying the white people should leave, because the ranchers are helping us," said Lokolongolo. "We want them to stay here so that in another drought, we can still come back and find the grass here." But David Lokai, another Kinamba resident, said the herders had disrupted grazing agreements that were in place between the ranchers and the locals, since they gain access to grass and water by force and do not pay. Because resources are finite, the local people find there is no longer enough pasture and water for their animals.
New social rules
“Had the temperatures not increased for another 10-15 days, we wouldn’t have been able to give the required amount of water to the provinces,” said Mohammad Khalid Rana, the Indus Water Regulatory Authority spokesman. That would have meant a delay in planting crops like cotton, sugarcane, and rice. The fluctuation in river flows, blamed mostly on climate change, was not unprecedented. Nor was it unexpected. Yet its solution does not appear to be in the works, for the near future. “If we want to ensure our food security and meet our climate change challenges, we’ll have to increase our water storage on a war footing,” warns Rana.
Even though Rana works for a government agency, his warnings appear to be making little difference in policy, according to independent water experts. Pakistan started off as a water affluent country in 1947, with per capita availability of renewable water at more than 5,000 cubic meters, to the verge of becoming water stressed, with per capita availability down to almost 1,000 cubic meters. Mainly due to an explosive growth in population that now stands at an estimated 190 million people. “Nobody in this country is doing anything to slow down the rate of population growth,” complained Shafqat Kakakhel, a former ambassador who has worked extensively on water related issues. “All other countries that were notorious for high population growth rates, Bangladesh, Subsaharan Africa, have done something ... we are doing absolutely nothing.”
More than 90 percent of Pakistan’s water resources are used in agriculture, which is much higher than the global average of 70 percent. The high consumption of water is blamed on outdated irrigation systems, loss of water during transmission, and the choice of crops.
Wrong choices
Pakistan mainly grows wheat, rice and sugar cane, which are all water intensive and some say the wrong choice for its agrarian economy. “There is absolutely no justification in Pakistan for sugarcane,” according to Kakakhel. “Sugarcane is like growing trees, like growing a forest, in the amount of water it consumes. And the rate of recovery, the amount of sugar you get from a litre of sugarcane juice is the lowest in the world.”
Another water and energy expert Arshad Abbasi insisted Pakistan’s problem is less of resources and more of management of resources. “More than 86 countries of the world are surviving on less water than us,” he said. They are doing so through efficient water management as well as modernizing their agriculture, he added. “Over the next 10 years, the way the crops are becoming hybrid internationally, our farmers will not be able to compete,” he cautioned. Giving an example of Indian Punjab, with topography similar to Pakistani Punjab, Abbasi explains Indian agricultural yield was two to three times higher than Pakistan.
Outdated infrastructure
Researchers at the University of Manchester in England say they’ve successfully used graphene-oxide membranes to filter common salts from seawater, turning it into drinking water more affordably than current desalination techniques.
Graphene-oxide membranes have already been shown to be effective at filtering small nanoparticles, organic molecules and large salts, but they had not yet been effective in filtering out common salts. "This is the first clear-cut experiment in this regime,” said professor Rahul Nair, at the University of Manchester. “We also demonstrate that there are realistic possibilities to scale up the described approach and mass produce graphene-based membranes with required sieve sizes. “Realization of scalable membranes with uniform pore size down to atomic scale is a significant step forward and will open new possibilities for improving the efficiency of desalination technology,” he said.
An Indian ragpicker boy drinks water from a tap at an automobile yard on the outskirts of Jammu, India
The United Nations says that by 2025, 14 percent of the world’s population will suffer water scarcity. Previous attempts to use the membranes saw smaller salts passing through, researchers said, but the Manchester group discovered that the size of the pores on the membrane could be “precisely controlled” allowing it to block smaller salts.
Specifically, the researchers said the graphene-oxide membranes have tiny capillaries that stop the flow of salts, while allowing fresh water to pass through. "The developed membranes are not only useful for desalination, but the atomic scale tunability of the pore size also opens new opportunity to fabricate membranes with on-demand filtration capable of filtering out ions according to their sizes," said co-lead author Jijo Abraham. The study was published Monday in the journal Nature Nanotechnology.
Graphene-oxide Membranes Could Make Seawater Into Freshwater
