As of today Trump up in 4 national polls: LA Times,IBD,PPD,Rassmussen

[Vigilante]

but not all accounted for in the RCP totals! Funny how that is!

You notice not one alphabet network poll in the bunch....developing!

 

[konradv]

Only four? What a slacker! Isn't Hillary up in about twenty?

 

[320 Years of History]

• LA Times -- This is not a poll, it's a panel. There's a difference and it's meaningful.
• Rassmussen -- This group's poll has been discussed elsewhere on USMB

I performed (and linked above) the "due diligence" on Rasmussen's poll. Someone else can do it for IBD and PPD.

 

[BuckToothMoron]

I polled everybody at the dinner table last night and the clown was beating the bulldyke 4 to 0. So why do I think he'll still lose?

 

[Preacher]

• LA Times -- This is not a poll, it's a panel. There's a difference and it's meaningful.
• Rassmussen -- This group's poll has been discussed elsewhere on USMB

I performed (and linked above) the "due diligence" on Rasmussen's poll. Someone else can do it for IBD and PPD.

IBD's was the most accurate the past 3 presidential cycles. Not my opinion that's fact look it up.

 

[320 Years of History]

• LA Times -- This is not a poll, it's a panel. There's a difference and it's meaningful.
• Rassmussen -- This group's poll has been discussed elsewhere on USMB

I performed (and linked above) the "due diligence" on Rasmussen's poll. Someone else can do it for IBD and PPD.

IBD's was the most accurate the past 3 presidential cycles. Not my opinion that's fact look it up.

What the heck does "most accurate" mean in your mind? I'm asking because whether a poll is accurate about a Presidential election comes down to being correct about what is basically a binary choice. How can one be more accurate than anyone else who makes the same choice? Everyone who chooses "heads" on a coin toss whereby the coin lands heads up is correct. There are no degrees of correctness in that situation.

 

[Mac1958]

So what do the individual battleground state numbers look like in these polls?

I keep asking that and never get an answer.

Or have we gone to a popular vote for presidential elections and no one told me?
.

 

[Care4all]

• LA Times -- This is not a poll, it's a panel. There's a difference and it's meaningful.
• Rassmussen -- This group's poll has been discussed elsewhere on USMB

I performed (and linked above) the "due diligence" on Rasmussen's poll. Someone else can do it for IBD and PPD.

IBD's was the most accurate the past 3 presidential cycles. Not my opinion that's fact look it up.

actually they were not that good in the last presidential election, look it up! In 2012, their margin of error on the election was 2.3....ABC polling had just a 0.9 margin of error and another 2 pollsters beat IBD as well...

IBD was great in 2004 and 2008 in their predictions, but not in 2012, the last presidential race...

 

[320 Years of History]

So what do the individual battleground state numbers look like in these polls?

I keep asking that and never get an answer.

Or have we gone to a popular vote for presidential elections and no one told me?
.

I don't know the answer. Do people engage those polling organizations to perform state level polls? I have no idea, but then I haven't bothered to try answering my question.

 

[owebo]

Those polling firms that wish to try and remain reputable will adjust to the read unskewed numbers in the coming week...

Democrat will all be like.....whaaaaaaat!!!!!!!

 

[Redpath]

 

[owebo]

Hitlery will lose big league.....

 

[Rexx Taylor]

what about the Mammath Ass Poll?? Trump 65% !!!!!

 

[Preacher]

• LA Times -- This is not a poll, it's a panel. There's a difference and it's meaningful.
• Rassmussen -- This group's poll has been discussed elsewhere on USMB

I performed (and linked above) the "due diligence" on Rasmussen's poll. Someone else can do it for IBD and PPD.

IBD's was the most accurate the past 3 presidential cycles. Not my opinion that's fact look it up.

What the heck does "most accurate" mean in your mind? I'm asking because whether a poll is accurate about a Presidential election comes down to being correct about what is basically a binary choice. How can one be more accurate than anyone else who makes the same choice? Everyone who chooses "heads" on a coin toss whereby the coin lands heads up is correct. There are no degrees of correctness in that situation.

They got the last 3 presidential races correct and were the closest to the final result.

 

[AZGAL]

I hate national polls.

 

[owebo]

I hate national polls.

I hate democrats too....same difference....

 

[Carl in Michigan]

I polled everybody at the dinner table last night and the clown was beating the bulldyke 4 to 0. So why do I think he'll still lose?

Make sure they vote!

 

[320 Years of History]

• LA Times -- This is not a poll, it's a panel. There's a difference and it's meaningful.
• Rassmussen -- This group's poll has been discussed elsewhere on USMB

I performed (and linked above) the "due diligence" on Rasmussen's poll. Someone else can do it for IBD and PPD.

IBD's was the most accurate the past 3 presidential cycles. Not my opinion that's fact look it up.

What the heck does "most accurate" mean in your mind? I'm asking because whether a poll is accurate about a Presidential election comes down to being correct about what is basically a binary choice. How can one be more accurate than anyone else who makes the same choice? Everyone who chooses "heads" on a coin toss whereby the coin lands heads up is correct. There are no degrees of correctness in that situation.

They got the last 3 presidential races correct and were the closest to the final result.

Red:
Yes and no. Is it really just too much for you to get your facts straight and then fairly and completely present them.

IBD's was the most accurate the past 3 presidential cycles. Not my opinion that's fact look it up.

Seeing as you told us/me to go look it up, I would have thought, at the very least, that you'd accurately presented the facts so that if/when I did go "look it up," I would find no factual basis for taking exception with your remarks about the facts of IBD's predictive performance. And then I go look and find that, well, yes, mostly right, but not totally right, and that makes me, in turn, question the nature and extent to which you are willing to demonstrate even the most basic level of discursive integrity when commenting about or sharing information.

IBD are tied with Pew, and one cannot be "closest" when is tied with another. It's also impossible to be "the most" of something with which one is tied with another. One can, however, be among the "two most," "the two closest," or "three most," etc. (This goes directly to one of the points I made in a different thread about details mattering and knowing well what one is talking about.)

Are the inaccuracy and incompleteness of your comment above the most egregious error one might make? Of course, not. But we are talking about mathematical and statistical measures of performance, so it's not "nothing" or minor either. Now, I don't expect IBD's own spokespeople to call attention to that distinction and its relevance; they have a vested interest in seeming superlative. I do, however, expect folks who are sharing and discussing IBD's poll to be complete, candid and precise in that regard.

(Click chart to access its source)​

Other:
Below is the most recent Pew survey result I have seen.

Currently, 41% of registered voters say they would vote for Hillary Clinton if the general election were held today, while 37% say they would vote for Donald Trump, 10% say they would vote for Gary Johnson and 4% say they would vote for Jill Stein.

​

(Click chart to access its source)​

 

[Preacher]

• LA Times -- This is not a poll, it's a panel. There's a difference and it's meaningful.
• Rassmussen -- This group's poll has been discussed elsewhere on USMB

I performed (and linked above) the "due diligence" on Rasmussen's poll. Someone else can do it for IBD and PPD.

IBD's was the most accurate the past 3 presidential cycles. Not my opinion that's fact look it up.

What the heck does "most accurate" mean in your mind? I'm asking because whether a poll is accurate about a Presidential election comes down to being correct about what is basically a binary choice. How can one be more accurate than anyone else who makes the same choice? Everyone who chooses "heads" on a coin toss whereby the coin lands heads up is correct. There are no degrees of correctness in that situation.

They got the last 3 presidential races correct and were the closest to the final result.

Red:
Yes and no. Is it really just too much for you to get your facts straight and then fairly and completely present them.

IBD's was the most accurate the past 3 presidential cycles. Not my opinion that's fact look it up.

Seeing as you told us/me to go look it up, I would have thought, at the very least, that you'd accurately presented the facts so that if/when I did go "look it up," I would find no factual basis for taking exception with your remarks about the facts of IBD's predictive performance. And then I go look and find that, well, yes, mostly right, but not totally right, and that makes me, in turn, question the nature and extent to which you are willing to demonstrate even the most basic level of discursive integrity when commenting about or sharing information.

IBD are tied with Pew, and one cannot be "closest" when is tied with another. It's also impossible to be "the most" of something with which one is tied with another. One can, however, be among the "two most," "the two closest," or "three most," etc. (This goes directly to one of the points I made in a different thread about details mattering and knowing well what one is talking about.)

Are the inaccuracy and incompleteness of your comment above the most egregious error one might make? Of course, not. But we are talking about mathematical and statistical measures of performance, so it's not "nothing" or minor either. Now, I don't expect IBD's own spokespeople to call attention to that distinction and its relevance; they have a vested interest in seeming superlative. I do, however, expect folks who are sharing and discussing IBD's poll to be complete, candid and precise in that regard.

(Click chart to access its source)​

Other:
Below is the most recent Pew survey result I have seen.

Currently, 41% of registered voters say they would vote for Hillary Clinton if the general election were held today, while 37% say they would vote for Donald Trump, 10% say they would vote for Gary Johnson and 4% say they would vote for Jill Stein.

​

(Click chart to access its source)​

It can't be in reality tied with Pew when Pew was OFF in 2004 and 2008 by more than IBD was.

 

[Preacher]

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: The Most Accurate Presidential Poll In America