I firmly believe that we can not sustain our defense spending at anything near what we are spending now. Whether you agree with me or not the US military is going to face significant cuts over the next decade. I think we can maintain a military that is capable of defending our national interests with a budget similar to what we spent pre 9/11 if the defense and political apparatus confronts significant problems and makes decisive changes.
It is no longer realistic for the US to maintain a military designed and capable of simultaneously engaging in two major global conflicts. For the future, we should maintain a military that is 1) capable of engaging china in the western pacific in a short but high intensity conflict and 2) capable of sustained low intensity engagements against non-state militants.
The primary problems we are gonna face in developing and maintaining a military capable of meeting these missions are 1) getting the political apparatus (POTUS & Legislature) to envision, develop and fund the appropriate sytems and doctrines 2) getting the heads of the AF, Army, and Navy/Marines to design doctrines that are commiserate with the future of warfare and then procure weapons systems that best serve these doctrines.
Our militaries stubborn insistence on procuring a high tech/high cost solution to every combat contingency is crippling our military. The AF, Navy and Army are particular burdened by the pentagons belief in the High Tech only future of warfare. Instead of relying only on the high tech our nation should develop Hi-Low weapons systems that allow the defense establishment operational flexibility as well as pragmatic apllications of US power. Essentially, its foolish for the US to deploy 200m F-22s or 100m f-35s to attack an enemy truck park full of 10,000 dollar targets. Ideally, each service branch should maintain a hi low force i.e. the airforce would have F-22, F-35, F-15, F-16, Drones or even armed Cessna Caravans rather than a force built around just F-22/F-35.
I'm vary concerned that for a number of our reasons our military is not developing the doctrine or equipment to prepare the nation for future wars. There is a real possibility that the aircraft carriers role in future conflcts will be like the battleships role in WWII. Our nations reliance on force projection from the decks of carriers could be seriously threatened. The chinese are doing a helluva job in developing anti-carrier capabilities centered around submarines and missiles. Additionally, their air force is being built to conduct combat at long ranges with long range AA weapons. Any conflict with china will occur across vast distances. Rather than targeting our stealthy and advanced fighter the chinese will target our tankers as destroying them will render short range tactical aircraft useless.