Our world population has ballooned to 7 BILLION people. That's so many people that if you counted ten of them every second, it would take you almost 222 YEARS to count them all! That large a population places a huge strain on the environment and resources of our planet, and if we don't get a whole lot smarter very fast, our civilization will collapse under the weight of all those billions.
Gee wiz - Where have we heard these doom & gloom predictions before? Save the planet, kill yourself.
It has been way over 100 years since the Government Scientist predicted we peaked in oil production in the 1800's.
I take this opportunity to express my opinion in the strongest terms, that the amazing exhibition of oil which has characterized the last twenty, and will probably characterize the next ten or twenty years, is nevertheless, not only geologically but historically, a temporary and vanishing phenomenon one which young men will live to see come to its natural end (1886, J.P. Lesley, state geologist of Pennsylvania).
- There is little or no chance for more oil in California (1886, U.S. Geological Survey).
- There is little or no chance for more oil in Kansas and Texas (1891, U.S. Geological Survey).
- Total future production limit of 5.7 billion barrels of oil, perhaps a ten-year supply (1914, U.S. Bureau of Mines).
- "Within the next two to five years the oil fields of this country will reach their maximum production, and from that time on we will face an ever-increasing decline." (1919 director of the U.S. Bureau of Mines)
- "Oil shales in Colorado and Utah would be exploited to produce oil, because the demand for oil could not be met by existing production." (1919 National Geographic magazine)
- "The time is, indeed, well in sight, when the United States will be nearing the end of some of its available stocks of raw materials on which her industrial supremacy has been largely built. America is running through her stores of domestic oil and is obliged to look abroad for future reserves. (September 1919, E. Mackay Edgar, in Sperling's Journal)
- "The position of the United States in regard to oil can best be characterized as precarious." (January 1920 Dr. George Otis Smith, Director of the United States Geological Survey)
- "Americans will have to depend on foreign sources or use less oil, or perhaps both." (May 1920 Dr. George Otis Smith, Director of the United States Geological Survey)
- "On the whole, therefore, we must expect that, unless our consumption is checked, we shall by 1925 be dependent on foreign oil fields to the extent of 150,000,000 barrels and possibly as much as 200,000,000 of crude each year, except insofar as the situation may at that time, perhaps, be helped to a slight extent by shale oil. Add to this probability that within 5 years--perhaps 3 years only--our domestic production will begin to fall off with increasing rapidity, due to the exhaustion of our reserves" (1920 David White, United States Geological Survey)
- During the period 1919-22, imports of crude oil from Mexico had been large--equal to 22 percent of total United States consumption in 1921. But salt water began to appear in some Mexican wells, and by 1921 geologists were debating whether Mexican production was not "through." in commenting upon the Mexican situation. "A great slump in Mexican production seems sooner or later inevitable. Thus there was not only alarm about the United States oil potential but also about our primary foreign source of supply. Lendling encouragement to these doubts were statements appearing in foreign publications describing the United States oil position." (1921, David White of the United States Geological Survey)
- "Given a resumption of trade and the consequent demand for oil products in, at the most, a year or two, the world will be confronted with an oil shortage such as has never been experienced before. (1921, E. Mackay Edgar)
- Reserves to last only thirteen years (1939, Department of the Interior).
- Reserves to last thirteen years (1951, Department of the Interior, Oil and Gas Division).
- We could use up all of the proven reserves of oil in the entire world by the end of the next decade (President Jimmy Carter speaking in 1978 to the entire world).
- At the present rate of use, it is estimated that coal reserves will last 200 more years. Petroleum may run out in 20 to 30 years, and natural gas may last only another 70 years (Ralph M. Feather, Merrill textbook Science Connections Annotated Teachers Version, 1990, p. 493).
- At the current rate of consumption, some scientists estimate that the worlds known supplies of oil
will be used up within your lifetime (1993, The United States and its People).
- The supply of fossil fuels is being used up at an alarming rate. Governments must help save our fossil fuel supply by passing laws limiting their use (Merrill/Glenco textbook, Biology, An Everyday Experience, 1992).
Quotes like these could fill a thousand pages easily. _PeakOil?
One interesting example of a big oil find in the midst of "an exhausted field" occurred in Kern County, California. Kern River Oil Field was discovered in 1899, and initially it was thought that only 10 percent of its heavy, viscous crude could be recovered. In 1942, after more than four decades of modest production, the field was estimated to still hold 54 million barrels of recoverable oil. As pointed out in 1995 by Morris Adelman, professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and one of the few remaining energy gurus, in the next forty-four years, it produced not 54 million barrels but 736 million barrels, and it had another 970 million barrels remaining. But even this estimate was wrong. In November 2007 U.S. oil giant Chevron announced that cumulative production had reached two billion barrels. Today, Kern River still puts out more than 80,000 barrels per day, and Chevron reckons that the remaining reserves are about 480 million barrels.