From
FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right
I would like to issue a challenge to those pollsters like Franklin & Marshall and GfK which in spite of all the facts above, are showing a substantial shift toward the Republicans when they apply their likely voter models. E-mail me -- my contact information is at the top of the page -- and tell me why you think what you're doing is good science.
Isn't it interesting how you can download a PDF of the questionaire, look at how many people responded, look at the results among people, etc. in every single other poll but you can't do that in this poll?
I call BS on this poll.
Also, about the Battleground/GWU poll, look at the time period it takes for them to poll people vs. every single other poll:
10/15 - 10/21. So their poll reflects Republicans' feelings about how McCain did after the debate last week, which got some Republicans energized. Many polls last week reflected this.
However, their enthusiasm has worn off.
FOX News did their poll 10/20 - 10/21 - Obama +9
Rasmussen - 10/19 - 10/21 - Obama +6
Zogby - 10/19 - 10/21 - Obama +10
Gallup - 10/19 - 10/21
etc.
So, by the end of this week, I expect the numbers to go up on the GWU poll, while I expect other polls that are showing double digit leads to moderate some.
This should be a 6 point race as John McCain has said all along.
